| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? |
No |
1,040 |
0.945 |
$982.80 |
$16.80 |
+1.7% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
2,112 |
0.465 |
$981.85 |
$-110.63 |
-10.1% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
818 |
0.835 |
$683.23 |
$93.75 |
+15.9% |
| Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? |
Yes |
674 |
0.580 |
$391.01 |
$-51.17 |
-11.6% |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? |
No |
152 |
0.950 |
$144.49 |
$-1.06 |
-0.7% |
| Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? |
No |
66 |
0.986 |
$65.31 |
$0.99 |
+1.5% |
| Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? |
Yes |
160 |
0.385 |
$61.51 |
$3.10 |
+5.3% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? |
No |
66 |
0.885 |
$58.64 |
$1.66 |
+2.9% |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? |
Yes |
67 |
0.480 |
$32.07 |
$-11.59 |
-26.6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
No |
16 |
0.969 |
$15.41 |
$-0.10 |
-0.7% |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31? |
No |
10 |
0.755 |
$7.47 |
$1.66 |
+28.6% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? |
No |
6 |
0.920 |
$5.32 |
$0.69 |
+15.0% |
| Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026? |
No |
5 |
0.838 |
$4.19 |
$0.12 |
+2.9% |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31? |
Yes |
5 |
0.245 |
$1.23 |
$-0.62 |
-33.8% |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31? |
Yes |
1 |
0.570 |
$0.59 |
$-0.19 |
-23.9% |