| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? |
No |
1,040 |
0.945 |
$982.80 |
$16.80 |
+1.7% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
2,112 |
0.455 |
$960.74 |
$-131.75 |
-12.1% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
818 |
0.835 |
$683.23 |
$93.75 |
+15.9% |
| Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? |
Yes |
674 |
0.580 |
$391.01 |
$-51.17 |
-11.6% |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? |
No |
152 |
0.952 |
$144.79 |
$-0.76 |
-0.5% |
| Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? |
No |
66 |
0.985 |
$65.24 |
$0.92 |
+1.4% |
| Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? |
Yes |
160 |
0.385 |
$61.51 |
$3.10 |
+5.3% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? |
No |
66 |
0.885 |
$58.64 |
$1.66 |
+2.9% |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? |
Yes |
67 |
0.460 |
$30.73 |
$-12.93 |
-29.6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
No |
16 |
0.968 |
$15.39 |
$-0.12 |
-0.8% |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31? |
No |
10 |
0.765 |
$7.57 |
$1.76 |
+30.3% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? |
No |
6 |
0.930 |
$5.38 |
$0.75 |
+16.2% |
| Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026? |
No |
5 |
0.837 |
$4.18 |
$0.11 |
+2.8% |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31? |
Yes |
5 |
0.235 |
$1.17 |
$-0.68 |
-36.5% |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31? |
Yes |
1 |
0.570 |
$0.59 |
$-0.19 |
-23.9% |