| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
Yes |
60,000 |
0.175 |
$10,500.00 |
$2,775.30 |
+35.9% |
| Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
10,000 |
0.987 |
$9,864.99 |
$242.53 |
+2.5% |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? |
No |
10,000 |
0.987 |
$9,864.98 |
$329.40 |
+3.5% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
Yes |
8,662 |
1.000 |
$8,657.33 |
$21.65 |
+0.3% |
| Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027? |
Yes |
10,000 |
0.855 |
$8,550.01 |
$-28.84 |
-0.3% |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? |
Yes |
10,000 |
0.625 |
$6,250.01 |
$159.61 |
+2.6% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
10,000 |
0.525 |
$5,250.00 |
$1,000.04 |
+23.5% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31? |
No |
5,000 |
0.895 |
$4,474.99 |
$1,264.18 |
+39.4% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? |
No |
4,435 |
0.986 |
$4,370.48 |
$10.74 |
+0.2% |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? |
No |
6,000 |
0.725 |
$4,349.99 |
$-6.02 |
-0.1% |
| Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? |
No |
4,925 |
0.875 |
$4,309.05 |
$270.85 |
+6.7% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
Yes |
150,000 |
0.027 |
$4,050.00 |
$-647.85 |
-13.8% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
No |
6,777 |
0.560 |
$3,795.29 |
$-1,062.72 |
-21.9% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
10,000 |
0.345 |
$3,448.98 |
$429.02 |
+14.2% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
3,288 |
1.000 |
$3,285.91 |
$7.65 |
+0.2% |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
5,000 |
0.625 |
$3,124.95 |
$190.93 |
+6.5% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? |
Yes |
3,000 |
0.999 |
$2,997.01 |
$3.00 |
+0.1% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House |
Yes |
5,531 |
0.455 |
$2,516.48 |
$173.58 |
+7.4% |
| Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? |
Yes |
3,000 |
0.785 |
$2,355.00 |
$-215.00 |
-8.4% |
| Iran coup attempt by December 31? |
Yes |
20,000 |
0.105 |
$2,100.00 |
$-520.14 |
-19.9% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
3,000 |
0.675 |
$2,025.00 |
$105.00 |
+5.5% |
| US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026? |
No |
2,000 |
0.981 |
$1,962.00 |
$8.00 |
+0.4% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? |
Yes |
7,000 |
0.275 |
$1,925.00 |
$413.63 |
+27.4% |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? |
No |
2,136 |
0.830 |
$1,772.77 |
$-25.92 |
-1.4% |
| 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31? |
No |
2,000 |
0.820 |
$1,639.00 |
$139.00 |
+9.3% |