Log in
Trader leaderboard/Warren-Buffett

Warren-Buffett

0x4478d7bd8a295691ac84f60a5ec2b47e122102a4
PnL (30d)
+$5,919
last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$17,611
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+1.1%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
56%
716W / 558L · 1,337 open
Win Return (30d)
66%
1,724W / 881L · 6 open
Trades (30d)
2,611
across 229 markets · ~11 per market
EV / position
+$42.28
avg win $249 · loss $512
Profit Factor
1.30
$25,373 won / $19,454 lost
Reward / Risk
0.49
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$3,045
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $545,814 · all-time $26,320,421

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 56.2% 716W/558L 229 $763,819
🏛 Politics 97.4% 111W/3L 40 $86,822
💵 Economy 33.3% 1W/2L 7 $61,551
🎬 Culture 100.0% 41W/0L 2 $6,516
🤖 Tech 1 $784

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

69 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? Yes 10,000 0.987 $9,864.99 $242.53 +2.5%
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? No 10,000 0.987 $9,864.98 $329.40 +3.5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? Yes 60,000 0.155 $9,300.00 $1,575.30 +20.4%
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 8,662 0.992 $8,588.04 $-47.64 -0.6%
Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027? Yes 10,000 0.855 $8,550.01 $-28.84 -0.3%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 10,000 0.625 $6,250.01 $159.61 +2.6%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 10,000 0.515 $5,150.00 $900.04 +21.2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? Yes 150,000 0.032 $4,800.00 $102.15 +2.2%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? Yes 6,000 0.785 $4,710.23 $1,442.13 +44.1%
Iran full airspace closure by August 31? No 5,000 0.895 $4,474.99 $1,264.18 +39.4%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? No 4,435 0.986 $4,370.48 $10.74 +0.2%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 6,000 0.725 $4,349.99 $-6.02 -0.1%
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? No 4,925 0.875 $4,309.05 $270.85 +6.7%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? No 6,777 0.557 $3,774.96 $-1,083.05 -22.3%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 10,000 0.345 $3,448.98 $429.02 +14.2%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? Yes 3,288 1.000 $3,285.91 $7.65 +0.2%
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? Yes 5,000 0.625 $3,124.95 $190.93 +6.5%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? Yes 3,000 0.999 $2,995.51 $1.50 +0.1%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 5,531 0.455 $2,516.48 $173.58 +7.4%
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? Yes 3,000 0.785 $2,355.00 $-215.00 -8.4%
Iran coup attempt by December 31? Yes 20,000 0.105 $2,100.00 $-520.14 -19.9%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 3,000 0.675 $2,025.00 $105.00 +5.5%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? Yes 7,000 0.275 $1,925.00 $413.63 +27.4%
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 2,136 0.830 $1,772.77 $-25.92 -1.4%
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31? No 2,000 0.844 $1,687.00 $187.00 +12.5%