luckyfly
0x413f29bc7f5ce2a2d8d28fb3a8b5d75199d247f3
Scoped to Sports — every figure below is this category, last 30 days.
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PnL (30d)
−$32,134
Sports · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
$0
no open positions
ROI (30d)
-35.8%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
28%
91W / 234L
Win Return (30d)
28%
91W / 234L
Trades (30d)
325
across 19 markets · ~17 per market
EV / position
−$1,691.25
avg win $2,156 · loss $3,935
Profit Factor
0.32
$15,089 won / $47,223 lost
Reward / Risk
0.55
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$14,240
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $124,706 · all-time $3,513,682
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
7 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
No |
25,000 |
0.325 |
$8,124.89 |
$1,369.76 |
+20.3% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 21, 2026? |
Yes |
5,000 |
0.850 |
$4,250.00 |
$450.00 |
+11.8% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
3,000 |
0.930 |
$2,791.50 |
$481.50 |
+20.8% |
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
5,000 |
0.255 |
$1,272.50 |
$-12.50 |
-1.0% |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? |
Yes |
9,000 |
0.125 |
$1,125.00 |
$-4,365.00 |
-79.5% |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? |
Yes |
6,712 |
0.065 |
$436.29 |
$-2,047.19 |
-82.4% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? |
Yes |
5,421 |
0.043 |
$235.27 |
$-764.71 |
-76.5% |