luckyfly
0x413f29bc7f5ce2a2d8d28fb3a8b5d75199d247f3
PnL (30d)
−$41,844
last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$450
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-31.8%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
27%
200W / 533L · 5 open
Win Return (30d)
28%
205W / 533L
Trades (30d)
738
across 30 markets · ~25 per market
EV / position
−$1,442.91
avg win $1,911 · loss $3,810
Profit Factor
0.35
$22,929 won / $64,774 lost
Reward / Risk
0.50
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$16,091
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $124,706 · all-time $3,513,682
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
7 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
No |
25,000 |
0.325 |
$8,124.89 |
$1,369.76 |
+20.3% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 21, 2026? |
Yes |
5,000 |
0.850 |
$4,250.00 |
$450.00 |
+11.8% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
3,000 |
0.931 |
$2,793.00 |
$483.00 |
+20.9% |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? |
Yes |
9,000 |
0.155 |
$1,395.00 |
$-4,095.00 |
-74.6% |
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
5,000 |
0.254 |
$1,270.00 |
$-15.00 |
-1.2% |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? |
Yes |
6,712 |
0.065 |
$436.29 |
$-2,047.19 |
-82.4% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? |
Yes |
5,421 |
0.043 |
$232.56 |
$-767.42 |
-76.7% |