moonlight2020
0x407dd149f1e92c91d0053e0240e03318a1e01bae
Scoped to Economy — every figure below is this category, last 30 days.
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PnL (30d)
+$846
Economy · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$238
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+13.5%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
100%
22W / 0L · 5 open
Win Return (30d)
93%
25W / 2L
Trades (30d)
27
across 9 markets · ~3 per market
EV / position
+$140.97
avg win $141
Profit Factor
∞
no losses yet
Reward / Risk
—
need wins & losses
Max Drawdown
$0
no drawdown
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $88,249 · all-time $2,986,405
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
12 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
No |
25,000 |
0.540 |
$13,512.50 |
$1,012.50 |
+8.1% |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
25,000 |
0.460 |
$11,487.50 |
$-1,012.50 |
-8.1% |
| Iran leadership change by September 30? |
No |
3,000 |
0.945 |
$2,835.00 |
$105.00 |
+3.8% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
3,000 |
0.835 |
$2,505.00 |
$145.00 |
+6.1% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? |
No |
3,000 |
0.635 |
$1,904.99 |
$-105.00 |
-5.2% |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? |
No |
1,500 |
0.987 |
$1,479.75 |
$100.75 |
+7.3% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
No |
5,000 |
0.225 |
$1,125.00 |
$-684.99 |
-37.8% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
No |
7,000 |
0.145 |
$1,015.03 |
$-942.69 |
-48.2% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.570 |
$569.89 |
$239.90 |
+72.7% |
| Will Nigel Farage up his vote share in Clacton? |
Yes |
300 |
0.991 |
$297.29 |
$48.30 |
+19.4% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? |
No |
50 |
0.865 |
$43.25 |
$2.25 |
+5.5% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Yes |
1 |
0.615 |
$0.66 |
$0.02 |
+2.5% |