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0x404a0b6396080a5e97f08982c25d6da14b13575d
Scoped to Crypto — every figure below is this category, last 30 days.
← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$2
Crypto · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$225
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-2.8%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
33%
3W / 6L · 4 open
Win Return (30d)
46%
6W / 7L
Trades (30d)
13
across 6 markets · ~2 per market
EV / position
−$1.01
avg win $8 · loss $10
Profit Factor
0.80
$8 won / $10 lost
Reward / Risk
0.80
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
$0
no drawdown
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $208 · all-time $412,765
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
10 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
No |
2,000 |
0.816 |
$1,631.00 |
$631.00 |
+63.1% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
2,000 |
0.184 |
$369.00 |
$-631.00 |
-63.1% |
| ChatGPT Full Outage by August 31? |
No |
150 |
0.680 |
$102.00 |
$17.50 |
+20.7% |
| Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? |
No |
104 |
0.675 |
$70.31 |
$20.31 |
+40.6% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August? |
No |
66 |
0.710 |
$46.71 |
$-3.29 |
-6.6% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August? |
No |
93 |
0.435 |
$40.28 |
$-9.72 |
-19.4% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 5? |
Yes |
28 |
1.000 |
$27.74 |
$7.74 |
+38.7% |
| Ethereal FDV above $50M one day after launch? |
Yes |
21 |
0.380 |
$7.82 |
$-2.05 |
-20.7% |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
Yes |
56 |
0.075 |
$4.17 |
$-5.83 |
-58.3% |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
Yes |
125 |
0.025 |
$3.06 |
$-6.94 |
-69.4% |