PnL (30d)

−$1,144

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$26

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-24.5%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

51%

106W / 101L · 23 open

Win Return (30d)

49%

112W / 115L · 3 open

Trades (30d)

230

across 23 markets · ~10 per market

EV / position

−$76.25

avg win $19 · loss $696

Profit Factor

0.18

$249 won / $1,393 lost

Reward / Risk

0.03

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$934

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	65.3% 584W/311L	139	$41,198
🏛 Politics	33.3% 50W/100L	9	$2,204
🎬 Culture	100.0% 50W/0L	3	$1,197

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

10 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Iran successfully targets shipping on August 3, 2026?	No	181	0.845	$152.67	$-1.97	-1.3%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	105	0.815	$85.83	$8.93	+11.6%
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	Yes	60	0.765	$45.90	$18.90	+70.0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?	Yes	280	0.115	$32.20	$-105.00	-76.5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	40	0.505	$20.20	$-0.80	-3.8%
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?	Yes	30	0.665	$19.95	$-0.35	-1.7%
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 5, 2026?	No	15	0.987	$14.51	$1.81	+14.2%
Will Trump say "Smithsonian" in August?	Yes	20	0.330	$6.60	$-1.60	-19.5%
Iran successfully targets shipping on August 1, 2026?	Yes	69	0.037	$2.54	$-41.35	-94.2%
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 4, 2026?	Yes	60	0.024	$1.44	$-26.36	-94.8%