PnL (30d)

−$60

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$65

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-3.1%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

53%

70W / 62L · 71 open

Win Return (30d)

51%

100W / 98L · 5 open

Trades (30d)

203

across 62 markets · ~3 per market

EV / position

−$1.58

avg win $5 · loss $10

Profit Factor

0.64

$104 won / $164 lost

Reward / Risk

0.46

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$47

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	53.0% 70W/62L	62	$3,856
🏛 Politics	—	4	$268
🌤 Weather	100.0% 2W/0L	1	$12

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

18 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	No	418	0.650	$271.44	$-10.70	-3.8%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	3,089	0.065	$200.81	$-83.18	-29.3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	66	0.325	$21.38	$-3.62	-14.5%
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	40	0.125	$5.00	$-1.40	-21.9%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	Yes	51	0.085	$4.33	$-1.78	-29.2%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	30	0.135	$4.00	$-0.00	-0.1%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	13	0.125	$1.67	$-0.33	-16.7%
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?	Yes	8	0.120	$0.96	$-1.04	-52.0%
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	333	0.003	$0.83	$-2.17	-72.2%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	250	0.003	$0.62	$-0.38	-37.5%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	250	0.003	$0.62	$-0.38	-37.5%
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?	Yes	3	0.180	$0.56	$-0.44	-43.8%
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	333	0.002	$0.50	$-0.50	-50.0%
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?	Yes	3	0.163	$0.45	$-0.55	-55.1%
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?	Yes	3	0.125	$0.43	$-1.57	-78.4%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	126	0.003	$0.31	$-0.69	-68.6%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	200	0.002	$0.30	$-0.70	-70.0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	Yes	13	0.019	$0.24	$-0.76	-75.5%