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Trader leaderboard/cas1111

cas1111

0x3b78bd6c83648052207dfbac180d0e9271c25ce6
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$68
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$1
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-8.1%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
60%
78W / 53L · 95 open
Win Return (30d)
51%
116W / 110L
Trades (30d)
226
across 57 markets · ~4 per market
EV / position
−$2.35
avg win $2 · loss $9
Profit Factor
0.31
$31 won / $99 lost
Reward / Risk
0.19
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$20
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $2,847 · all-time $61,677

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 63.1% 673W/394L 525 $7,800
⚽ Sports 90.8% 69W/7L 36 $522
₿ Crypto 74.4% 32W/11L 36 $170
🏛 Politics 65.0% 13W/7L 22 $200
🎬 Culture 70.0% 7W/3L 7 $42
💵 Economy 100.0% 1W/0L 2 $12

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

35 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 81 0.455 $36.72 $-7.33 -16.6%
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? No 73 0.380 $27.79 $-5.27 -15.9%
Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31? No 44 0.405 $17.67 $-3.09 -14.9%
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 25 0.675 $17.16 $1.06 +6.6%
Game Handicap: Z5 (-1.5) vs 3v Team (+1.5) Zeu5 Esports 20 0.785 $15.80 $1.76 +12.6%
LoL: Zeu5 Esports vs 3v Team (BO5) - LRN Playoffs Zeu5 Esports 19 0.845 $15.73 $0.73 +4.8%
Will Virginia use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No 16 0.978 $15.43 $0.43 +2.9%
LoL: HMBLE vs Aeterna Esports (BO1) - LIT Regular Season HMBLE 16 0.928 $14.74 $0.45 +3.2%
Will Amy Klobuchar win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 15 0.994 $14.53 $0.31 +2.2%
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? No 21 0.630 $13.50 $-1.50 -10.0%
LoL: Shark Attack vs DIA Ozarox Esports (BO3) - TCL Play-Ins DIA Ozarox Esports 18 0.745 $13.32 $0.09 +0.7%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes 74 0.170 $12.57 $-6.52 -34.1%
LoL: NORTHERNGRADE ESPORTS vs White Dragons (BO3) - LPLOL Group Stage White Dragons 19 0.475 $9.13 $1.44 +18.7%
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? Yes 14 0.603 $8.53 $-1.48 -14.8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 10 0.775 $7.60 $-0.05 -0.6%
Game Handicap: SU (-1.5) vs BoostGate Esports (+1.5) SU Esports 10 0.730 $7.58 $0.31 +4.3%
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-07 House seat? Yes 9 0.700 $6.27 $0.36 +6.1%
Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Sep 30? No 6 0.925 $5.24 $0.25 +5.1%
Trump out as President by August 31? No 5 0.993 $5.05 $0.01 +0.3%
Will Count Binface win 30–40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? No 5 0.935 $5.01 $0.19 +3.9%
Will Haley Stevens win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? Yes 5 0.968 $4.86 $0.41 +9.1%
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? No 5 0.964 $4.85 $0.02 +0.4%
Will Gretchen Whitmer announce a Presidential run before 2027? No 5 0.930 $4.65 $-0.10 -2.1%
Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? No 5 0.848 $4.24 $-0.75 -15.0%
WLGaming Esports to win 2-0? Yes 6 0.680 $4.23 $0.06 +1.5%