| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
23,500 |
0.845 |
$19,857.52 |
$3,330.56 |
+20.2% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
No |
14,712 |
0.935 |
$13,756.16 |
$3,692.80 |
+36.7% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
6,800 |
0.825 |
$5,609.99 |
$-91.95 |
-1.6% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? |
No |
5,623 |
0.945 |
$5,313.97 |
$848.01 |
+19.0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? |
No |
4,718 |
0.745 |
$3,514.70 |
$554.15 |
+18.7% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
4,234 |
0.815 |
$3,450.24 |
$1,286.66 |
+59.5% |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? |
No |
3,354 |
0.956 |
$3,206.24 |
$722.89 |
+29.1% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
No |
3,025 |
0.905 |
$2,737.74 |
$491.92 |
+21.9% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
3,980 |
0.675 |
$2,686.34 |
$-63.83 |
-2.3% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31? |
No |
2,409 |
0.895 |
$2,156.32 |
$707.73 |
+48.9% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
Yes |
2,350 |
0.853 |
$2,003.37 |
$103.93 |
+5.5% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
2,243 |
0.795 |
$1,782.96 |
$758.92 |
+74.1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
No |
4,387 |
0.380 |
$1,667.09 |
$-63.48 |
-3.7% |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? |
No |
1,800 |
0.845 |
$1,520.99 |
$245.01 |
+19.2% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? |
No |
1,498 |
0.905 |
$1,355.74 |
$192.20 |
+16.5% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? |
Yes |
1,023 |
0.999 |
$1,022.18 |
$348.76 |
+51.8% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
1,000 |
1.000 |
$999.51 |
$293.50 |
+41.6% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
Yes |
1,100 |
0.905 |
$995.69 |
$114.86 |
+13.0% |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? |
No |
1,200 |
0.685 |
$821.99 |
$3.00 |
+0.4% |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? |
No |
827 |
0.890 |
$736.14 |
$97.71 |
+15.3% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House |
Yes |
1,051 |
0.455 |
$478.36 |
$21.77 |
+4.8% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
3,819 |
0.117 |
$444.90 |
$-215.60 |
-32.6% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? |
No |
400 |
0.905 |
$362.01 |
$52.00 |
+16.8% |
| Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? |
Yes |
100 |
0.690 |
$68.98 |
$0.99 |
+1.5% |
| Will Ukraine target Moscow by August 7, 2026? |
No |
60 |
0.004 |
$0.24 |
$-9.76 |
-97.6% |