| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
23,500 |
0.835 |
$19,622.52 |
$3,095.56 |
+18.7% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
No |
14,712 |
0.935 |
$13,756.16 |
$3,692.80 |
+36.7% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
6,400 |
0.840 |
$5,375.99 |
$0.04 |
+0.0% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? |
No |
5,623 |
0.945 |
$5,313.97 |
$848.01 |
+19.0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? |
No |
4,718 |
0.745 |
$3,514.70 |
$554.15 |
+18.7% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
4,234 |
0.785 |
$3,323.65 |
$1,160.07 |
+53.6% |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? |
No |
3,354 |
0.956 |
$3,206.24 |
$722.89 |
+29.1% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
No |
3,025 |
0.900 |
$2,722.61 |
$476.79 |
+21.2% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
3,880 |
0.675 |
$2,618.84 |
$-64.33 |
-2.4% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31? |
No |
2,409 |
0.885 |
$2,132.23 |
$683.64 |
+47.2% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
Yes |
2,350 |
0.853 |
$2,003.37 |
$103.93 |
+5.5% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
2,243 |
0.785 |
$1,760.53 |
$736.49 |
+71.9% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
No |
4,217 |
0.385 |
$1,623.56 |
$-44.09 |
-2.6% |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? |
No |
1,800 |
0.865 |
$1,556.99 |
$281.00 |
+22.0% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? |
No |
1,498 |
0.905 |
$1,355.74 |
$192.20 |
+16.5% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
Yes |
1,400 |
0.895 |
$1,253.25 |
$132.18 |
+11.8% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? |
Yes |
1,023 |
0.999 |
$1,021.67 |
$348.25 |
+51.7% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
1,000 |
1.000 |
$999.51 |
$293.50 |
+41.6% |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? |
No |
1,200 |
0.685 |
$821.99 |
$3.00 |
+0.4% |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? |
No |
827 |
0.895 |
$740.28 |
$101.85 |
+16.0% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House |
Yes |
1,051 |
0.455 |
$478.36 |
$21.77 |
+4.8% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
3,819 |
0.117 |
$444.90 |
$-215.60 |
-32.6% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? |
No |
400 |
0.905 |
$362.01 |
$52.00 |
+16.8% |
| Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? |
Yes |
100 |
0.690 |
$68.98 |
$0.99 |
+1.5% |
| Will Ukraine target Moscow by August 14, 2026? |
No |
701 |
0.034 |
$23.48 |
$-7.11 |
-23.2% |