PnL (30d)

−$71

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$291

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-3.9%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

0%

0W / 5L · 35 open

Win Return (30d)

8%

3W / 35L · 2 open

Trades (30d)

40

across 13 markets · ~3 per market

EV / position

−$14.11

· loss $14

Profit Factor

0.00

$0 won / $71 lost

Reward / Risk

—

need wins & losses

Max Drawdown

−$14

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	58.0% 40W/29L	54	$21,249
🏛 Politics	0.0% 0W/1L	2	$2,211
💵 Economy	0.0% 0W/1L	2	$2,211

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

19 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	No	2,980	0.705	$2,100.91	$90.91	+4.5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	1,800	0.835	$1,503.00	$121.00	+8.8%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	1,500	0.645	$967.50	$96.50	+11.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	1,500	0.465	$697.50	$-127.50	-15.5%
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Yes	1,839	0.335	$615.93	$-353.53	-36.5%
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?	Yes	1,270	0.380	$482.60	$-141.69	-22.7%
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	No	700	0.635	$444.50	$-21.50	-4.6%
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	1,073	0.290	$311.28	$-198.07	-38.9%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	300	0.920	$276.00	$54.00	+24.3%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	No	250	0.855	$213.75	$41.25	+23.9%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	Yes	320	0.235	$75.20	$-17.40	-18.8%
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	220	0.275	$60.50	$-36.30	-37.5%
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	100	0.485	$48.50	$4.50	+10.2%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	No	200	0.205	$41.00	$-73.00	-64.0%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	No	304	0.125	$37.98	$-10.02	-20.9%
Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	100	0.275	$27.50	$-9.33	-25.3%
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	200	0.110	$22.00	$-48.00	-68.6%
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?	Yes	100	0.055	$5.50	$-0.50	-8.3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	2	0.675	$1.04	$0.04	+3.8%