PnL (30d)

+$22

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$1,190

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+0.2%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

58%

40W / 29L · 159 open

Win Return (30d)

32%

69W / 149L · 10 open

Trades (30d)

228

across 54 markets · ~4 per market

EV / position

+$1.06

avg win $53 · loss $46

Profit Factor

1.04

$534 won / $511 lost

Reward / Risk

1.15

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$14

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	58.0% 40W/29L	54	$21,249
🏛 Politics	0.0% 0W/1L	2	$2,211
💵 Economy	0.0% 0W/1L	2	$2,211

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

19 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	No	2,980	0.695	$2,070.82	$60.81	+3.0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	1,800	0.835	$1,503.00	$121.00	+8.8%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	1,500	0.655	$982.50	$111.50	+12.8%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	1,500	0.455	$682.50	$-142.50	-17.3%
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Yes	1,839	0.335	$615.93	$-353.53	-36.5%
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?	Yes	1,270	0.385	$488.95	$-135.34	-21.7%
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	No	700	0.635	$444.50	$-21.50	-4.6%
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	1,073	0.305	$327.38	$-181.97	-35.7%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	300	0.930	$279.00	$57.00	+25.7%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	No	250	0.850	$212.50	$40.00	+23.2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	Yes	320	0.225	$72.00	$-20.60	-22.2%
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	220	0.275	$60.50	$-36.30	-37.5%
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	100	0.485	$48.50	$4.50	+10.2%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	No	200	0.235	$47.00	$-67.00	-58.8%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	No	304	0.145	$44.06	$-3.94	-8.2%
Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	100	0.275	$27.50	$-9.33	-25.3%
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	200	0.105	$21.00	$-49.00	-70.0%
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?	Yes	100	0.070	$7.00	$1.00	+16.7%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	2	0.675	$1.04	$0.04	+3.8%