horse2026
0x37de5810f247a0cba8dc95b626bb4e7b9b32f512
Scoped to Weather — every figure below is this category, last 30 days.
← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$805
Weather · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$32
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-18.5%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
33%
184W / 371L · 3 open
Win Return (30d)
33%
185W / 371L · 2 open
Trades (30d)
558
across 110 markets · ~5 per market
EV / position
−$7.52
avg win $18 · loss $18
Profit Factor
0.42
$579 won / $1,383 lost
Reward / Risk
0.98
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$141
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $12,583 · all-time $12,006,087
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
| Category |
Win Resolved (per trade) |
Markets |
Volume |
|
🌐 All markets
|
39.2%
812W/1,257L
|
377 |
$30,259 |
|
🌤 Weather
|
22.6%
42W/144L
|
39 |
$2,394 |
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
4 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on August 6? |
No |
147 |
0.745 |
$109.80 |
$-2.21 |
-2.0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 6? |
Yes |
468 |
0.020 |
$9.36 |
$-19.36 |
-67.4% |
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C or higher on August 5? |
Yes |
200 |
0.001 |
$0.10 |
$-3.00 |
-96.8% |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 5? |
Yes |
25 |
0.001 |
$0.01 |
$-3.91 |
-99.7% |