PnL (30d)

+$237

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$61

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+8.7%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

68%

46W / 22L · 197 open

Win Return (30d)

63%

167W / 98L

Trades (30d)

265

across 30 markets · ~9 per market

EV / position

+$18.19

avg win $48 · loss $30

Profit Factor

2.57

$387 won / $151 lost

Reward / Risk

1.61

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$21

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	39.9% 132W/199L	99	$20,223
🏛 Politics	0.0% 0W/4L	15	$1,248
💵 Economy	—	1	$28

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

45 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	482	0.165	$79.61	$-4.59	-5.5%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	232	0.325	$75.29	$-4.09	-5.2%
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 5, 2026?	Yes	83	0.465	$38.78	$28.78	+287.8%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	170	0.225	$38.35	$-13.77	-26.4%
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?	Yes	566	0.055	$31.14	$-35.13	-53.0%
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?	Yes	191	0.135	$25.79	$-24.20	-48.4%
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	240	0.105	$25.19	$-12.57	-33.3%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	386	0.065	$25.07	$-7.08	-22.0%
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	359	0.065	$23.36	$-37.64	-61.7%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	130	0.145	$18.81	$-3.55	-15.9%
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	Yes	152	0.115	$17.43	$-15.43	-47.0%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	333	0.048	$15.80	$-0.20	-1.2%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	183	0.080	$14.63	$-2.37	-13.9%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	No	101	0.145	$14.62	$-8.72	-37.4%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	No	60	0.230	$13.80	$-5.80	-29.6%
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	Yes	62	0.215	$13.27	$-3.18	-19.3%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	No	43	0.310	$13.22	$-4.51	-25.4%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?	No	69	0.175	$12.08	$-10.55	-46.6%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	164	0.070	$11.47	$-8.04	-41.2%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	48	0.215	$10.33	$-4.16	-28.7%
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 30, 2026?	Yes	93	0.105	$9.74	$-0.26	-2.6%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	64	0.150	$9.56	$-4.56	-32.3%
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 20, 2026?	Yes	105	0.080	$8.40	$-1.60	-16.0%
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 25, 2026?	Yes	87	0.095	$8.29	$-1.71	-17.1%
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 29, 2026?	Yes	54	0.120	$6.49	$-3.51	-35.1%