PnL (30d)

+$64

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$544

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+0.6%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

40%

132W / 199L · 557 open

Win Return (30d)

39%

343W / 545L

Trades (30d)

888

across 99 markets · ~9 per market

EV / position

+$1.40

avg win $40 · loss $29

Profit Factor

1.09

$807 won / $743 lost

Reward / Risk

1.41

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$28

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	39.9% 132W/199L	99	$19,911
🏛 Politics	0.0% 0W/4L	13	$1,258
💵 Economy	—	1	$28

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

45 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	232	0.335	$77.60	$-1.77	-2.2%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	482	0.155	$74.78	$-9.41	-11.2%
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 5, 2026?	Yes	83	0.470	$39.20	$29.20	+292.0%
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?	Yes	566	0.055	$31.14	$-35.13	-53.0%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	170	0.160	$27.27	$-24.85	-47.7%
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	240	0.110	$26.39	$-11.37	-30.1%
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?	Yes	191	0.135	$25.79	$-24.20	-48.4%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	386	0.065	$25.07	$-7.08	-22.0%
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	359	0.065	$23.36	$-37.64	-61.7%
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	Yes	152	0.115	$17.43	$-15.43	-47.0%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	130	0.125	$16.21	$-6.15	-27.5%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	183	0.085	$15.55	$-1.45	-8.6%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	No	101	0.145	$14.62	$-8.72	-37.4%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	333	0.043	$14.44	$-1.56	-9.7%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	No	60	0.230	$13.80	$-5.80	-29.6%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	164	0.080	$13.11	$-6.41	-32.8%
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	Yes	62	0.205	$12.65	$-3.79	-23.1%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	No	43	0.275	$11.73	$-6.01	-33.9%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?	No	69	0.165	$11.39	$-11.24	-49.7%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	48	0.215	$10.33	$-4.16	-28.7%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	64	0.160	$10.20	$-3.92	-27.8%
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 30, 2026?	Yes	93	0.100	$9.27	$-0.73	-7.3%
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 20, 2026?	Yes	105	0.080	$8.40	$-1.60	-16.0%
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 25, 2026?	Yes	87	0.095	$8.29	$-1.71	-17.1%
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 29, 2026?	Yes	54	0.120	$6.49	$-3.51	-35.1%