PnL (30d)

+$123

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$10

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+3.2%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

72%

76W / 29L · 38 open

Win Return (30d)

69%

99W / 44L

Trades (30d)

143

across 54 markets · ~3 per market

EV / position

+$3.16

avg win $10 · loss $22

Profit Factor

1.70

$298 won / $175 lost

Reward / Risk

0.44

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$1

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	72.4% 76W/29L	54	$4,478
🤖 Tech	80.0% 4W/1L	4	$77

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

19 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will any other model be the best AI model on August 10, 2026?	Yes	1,100	0.928	$1,021.34	$-16.13	-1.6%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 10, 2026?	No	100	0.920	$92.05	$6.05	+7.0%
Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?	Yes	100	0.805	$80.50	$7.50	+10.3%
Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on August 10, 2026?	No	50	0.999	$49.92	$0.90	+1.8%
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	40	0.865	$34.60	$-0.60	-1.7%
Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	30	0.920	$27.60	$0.30	+1.1%
Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on August 10, 2026?	No	20	1.000	$19.99	$0.15	+0.8%
Will any AI model reach 1550 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	20	0.940	$18.79	$0.00	+0.0%
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	20	0.885	$17.70	$-0.50	-2.7%
Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	20	0.815	$16.30	$-1.70	-9.5%
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	Yes	20	0.750	$15.00	$5.20	+53.1%
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	20	0.700	$14.00	$0.20	+1.4%
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	20	0.465	$9.30	$-1.30	-12.3%
Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?	No	9	0.995	$9.14	$0.25	+2.8%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?	Yes	100	0.090	$9.00	$0.40	+4.7%
Will any other model be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?	Yes	100	0.055	$5.50	$2.50	+83.3%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	100	0.043	$4.34	$0.54	+14.2%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	100	0.041	$4.05	$0.05	+1.2%
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	20	0.037	$0.75	$-0.09	-10.7%