| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? |
Yes |
2,800 |
0.999 |
$2,795.66 |
$671.03 |
+31.6% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
2,210 |
0.785 |
$1,734.85 |
$775.42 |
+80.8% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
Yes |
9,400 |
0.165 |
$1,550.99 |
$279.04 |
+21.9% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? |
Yes |
4,019 |
0.305 |
$1,225.86 |
$341.64 |
+38.6% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
2,308 |
0.465 |
$1,073.39 |
$297.40 |
+38.3% |
| Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026? |
No |
1,100 |
0.975 |
$1,071.95 |
$38.15 |
+3.7% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
1,530 |
0.685 |
$1,047.79 |
$240.88 |
+29.9% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
1,240 |
0.835 |
$1,035.40 |
$31.00 |
+3.1% |
| Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31? |
No |
1,000 |
0.875 |
$875.00 |
$250.87 |
+40.2% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.675 |
$675.00 |
$35.00 |
+5.5% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
878 |
0.705 |
$618.97 |
$118.53 |
+23.7% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
618 |
0.775 |
$479.20 |
$174.43 |
+57.2% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
600 |
0.655 |
$393.00 |
$-3.00 |
-0.8% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? |
No |
500 |
0.715 |
$357.50 |
$37.50 |
+11.7% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.350 |
$350.00 |
$10.00 |
+2.9% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
Yes |
10,117 |
0.033 |
$333.88 |
$-26.41 |
-7.3% |
| Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? |
No |
500 |
0.660 |
$329.99 |
$15.00 |
+4.8% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
1,100 |
0.230 |
$253.00 |
$0.00 |
+0.0% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31? |
No |
750 |
0.270 |
$202.49 |
$-15.50 |
-7.1% |
| Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? |
No |
2,982 |
0.034 |
$101.39 |
$-432.96 |
-81.0% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
400 |
0.218 |
$87.20 |
$9.12 |
+11.7% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
500 |
0.125 |
$62.50 |
$3.59 |
+6.1% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
4,000 |
0.015 |
$60.00 |
$8.00 |
+15.4% |
| Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by December 31? |
Yes |
200 |
0.120 |
$24.00 |
$-4.00 |
-14.3% |
| Will William Clouston get second place in the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
300 |
0.017 |
$4.95 |
$-18.95 |
-79.3% |