| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? |
Yes |
2,800 |
0.999 |
$2,795.66 |
$671.03 |
+31.6% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
2,210 |
0.765 |
$1,690.65 |
$731.22 |
+76.2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
Yes |
9,400 |
0.165 |
$1,550.99 |
$279.04 |
+21.9% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? |
Yes |
4,019 |
0.305 |
$1,225.86 |
$341.64 |
+38.6% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
2,508 |
0.471 |
$1,181.43 |
$338.21 |
+40.1% |
| Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026? |
No |
1,100 |
0.976 |
$1,073.60 |
$39.80 |
+3.8% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
1,530 |
0.695 |
$1,062.93 |
$256.02 |
+31.7% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
1,240 |
0.835 |
$1,035.40 |
$31.00 |
+3.1% |
| Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31? |
No |
1,000 |
0.875 |
$875.00 |
$250.87 |
+40.2% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.675 |
$675.00 |
$35.00 |
+5.5% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
818 |
0.785 |
$642.39 |
$239.03 |
+59.3% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
878 |
0.715 |
$627.75 |
$127.31 |
+25.4% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
600 |
0.655 |
$393.00 |
$-3.00 |
-0.8% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? |
No |
500 |
0.715 |
$357.50 |
$37.50 |
+11.7% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.350 |
$350.00 |
$10.00 |
+2.9% |
| Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? |
No |
500 |
0.680 |
$339.99 |
$25.00 |
+7.9% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
Yes |
10,117 |
0.032 |
$318.70 |
$-41.58 |
-11.5% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
1,100 |
0.225 |
$247.50 |
$-5.50 |
-2.2% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31? |
No |
750 |
0.275 |
$206.24 |
$-11.75 |
-5.4% |
| Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? |
No |
2,982 |
0.034 |
$101.39 |
$-432.96 |
-81.0% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
400 |
0.238 |
$95.40 |
$17.32 |
+22.2% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
500 |
0.115 |
$57.50 |
$-1.41 |
-2.4% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
4,000 |
0.013 |
$54.00 |
$2.00 |
+3.8% |
| Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by December 31? |
Yes |
200 |
0.115 |
$23.00 |
$-5.00 |
-17.9% |
| Will William Clouston get second place in the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
300 |
0.017 |
$4.95 |
$-18.95 |
-79.3% |