PnL (30d)

−$7

Economy · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$104

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-0.2%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

16%

8W / 43L · 134 open

Win Return (30d)

34%

62W / 122L · 1 open

Trades (30d)

185

across 29 markets · ~6 per market

EV / position

−$1.23

avg win $25 · loss $14

Profit Factor

0.87

$49 won / $57 lost

Reward / Risk

1.74

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$6

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	38.0% 608W/993L	370	$60,707
🏛 Politics	43.8% 56W/72L	43	$5,065
🎬 Culture	44.2% 57W/72L	43	$4,181
💵 Economy	40.0% 2W/3L	14	$1,771
🤖 Tech	100.0% 1W/0L	1	$43

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

105 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	Yes	5,551	0.270	$1,498.80	$727.72	+94.4%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	Yes	5,551	0.235	$1,304.51	$-224.96	-14.7%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	5,551	0.205	$1,140.75	$195.18	+20.6%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	1,370	0.685	$938.11	$80.21	+9.3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	5,551	0.125	$693.89	$-405.35	-36.9%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	Yes	1,228	0.510	$626.30	$178.39	+39.8%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	703	0.865	$607.78	$85.63	+16.4%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	Yes	1,228	0.465	$571.04	$-88.98	-13.5%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	779	0.625	$486.74	$43.92	+9.9%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?	Yes	411	0.833	$341.92	$27.44	+8.7%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	1,368	0.225	$307.91	$44.37	+16.8%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?	Yes	5,551	0.054	$299.76	$134.19	+81.0%
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	444	0.585	$259.74	$75.44	+40.9%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	779	0.295	$229.74	$-12.80	-5.3%
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting?	Yes	198	0.985	$195.19	$20.57	+11.8%
Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	332	0.575	$190.78	$-46.37	-19.6%
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?	Yes	436	0.418	$182.52	$-43.64	-19.3%
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?	Yes	436	0.371	$161.81	$20.86	+14.8%
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	400	0.370	$148.00	$1.91	+1.3%
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July?	Yes	288	0.510	$147.16	$59.07	+67.1%
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	332	0.390	$129.40	$67.55	+109.2%
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?	Yes	130	0.885	$115.05	$3.25	+2.9%
Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	703	0.125	$87.83	$-30.69	-25.9%
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in July?	Yes	288	0.260	$74.82	$2.90	+4.0%
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	67	0.945	$63.10	$11.43	+22.1%