PnL (30d)

+$643

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$422

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+1.1%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

38%

608W / 993L · 1,437 open

Win Return (30d)

36%

1,078W / 1,957L · 3 open

Trades (30d)

3,038

across 370 markets · ~8 per market

EV / position

+$2.36

avg win $62 · loss $58

Profit Factor

1.08

$8,492 won / $7,848 lost

Reward / Risk

1.07

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$576

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	38.0% 608W/993L	370	$60,707
🏛 Politics	43.8% 56W/72L	43	$5,065
🎬 Culture	44.2% 57W/72L	43	$4,181
💵 Economy	40.0% 2W/3L	14	$1,771
🤖 Tech	66.7% 2W/1L	3	$65

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

104 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	Yes	5,551	0.278	$1,540.43	$769.35	+99.8%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	5,551	0.234	$1,301.74	$356.16	+37.7%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	Yes	5,551	0.225	$1,249.00	$-280.48	-18.3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	1,370	0.685	$938.11	$80.21	+9.3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	5,551	0.115	$638.38	$-460.86	-41.9%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	Yes	1,228	0.510	$626.30	$178.39	+39.8%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	703	0.865	$607.78	$85.63	+16.4%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	Yes	1,228	0.475	$583.32	$-76.70	-11.6%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	779	0.625	$486.74	$43.92	+9.9%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?	Yes	411	0.833	$342.13	$27.65	+8.8%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	1,368	0.225	$307.91	$44.37	+16.8%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?	Yes	5,551	0.054	$299.76	$134.19	+81.0%
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	413	0.580	$239.54	$74.14	+44.8%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	779	0.295	$229.74	$-12.80	-5.3%
Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	332	0.600	$199.08	$-38.08	-16.1%
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting?	Yes	198	0.976	$193.40	$18.78	+10.8%
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?	Yes	436	0.418	$182.52	$-43.64	-19.3%
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?	Yes	436	0.367	$160.28	$19.33	+13.7%
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	400	0.380	$152.00	$5.91	+4.0%
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July?	Yes	288	0.509	$146.87	$58.78	+66.7%
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	332	0.370	$122.77	$60.91	+98.5%
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?	Yes	130	0.885	$115.05	$3.25	+2.9%
Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	703	0.125	$87.83	$-30.69	-25.9%
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in July?	Yes	288	0.255	$73.38	$1.46	+2.0%
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	67	0.945	$63.10	$11.43	+22.1%