LukeAlpha
0x330278eb937dbe7c6db7ac01346fd9e920ee79c0
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days.
← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$34
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$1
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-46.0%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
5%
2W / 36L · 20 open
Win Return (30d)
15%
8W / 47L · 3 open
Trades (30d)
58
across 20 markets · ~3 per market
EV / position
−$2.43
avg win $3 · loss $3
Profit Factor
0.08
$3 won / $37 lost
Reward / Risk
1.05
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
$0
no drawdown
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $4,500 · all-time $1,479,463
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
7 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
600 |
0.011 |
$6.90 |
$0.90 |
+15.0% |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
300 |
0.013 |
$4.05 |
$1.05 |
+35.0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? |
Yes |
300 |
0.011 |
$3.30 |
$0.30 |
+10.0% |
| Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? |
No |
300 |
0.007 |
$2.25 |
$-0.75 |
-25.0% |
| Trump out as President by August 31? |
Yes |
300 |
0.007 |
$2.25 |
$-0.75 |
-25.0% |
| Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? |
Yes |
300 |
0.007 |
$2.10 |
$-0.90 |
-30.0% |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
Yes |
275 |
0.001 |
$0.14 |
$-2.61 |
-95.0% |