| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
Yes |
1,031 |
0.600 |
$618.59 |
$-13.24 |
-2.1% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
453 |
0.815 |
$369.15 |
$101.88 |
+38.1% |
| Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? |
Yes |
705 |
0.460 |
$324.30 |
$13.15 |
+4.2% |
| Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
1,178 |
0.125 |
$147.30 |
$-12.19 |
-7.6% |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31? |
Yes |
300 |
0.370 |
$111.00 |
$6.00 |
+5.7% |
| Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? |
Yes |
3,510 |
0.028 |
$96.53 |
$-30.10 |
-23.8% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? |
Yes |
406 |
0.225 |
$91.35 |
$-14.15 |
-13.4% |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31? |
Yes |
250 |
0.235 |
$58.75 |
$11.25 |
+23.7% |
| Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
Yes |
29,370 |
0.002 |
$44.05 |
$-59.59 |
-57.5% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
376 |
0.096 |
$36.07 |
$-12.83 |
-26.2% |
| Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? |
Yes |
500 |
0.065 |
$32.50 |
$-7.50 |
-18.8% |
| Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
Yes |
2,600 |
0.011 |
$27.30 |
$-14.30 |
-34.4% |
| Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
200 |
0.091 |
$18.30 |
$-5.70 |
-23.7% |
| Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
133 |
0.118 |
$15.68 |
$2.47 |
+18.7% |
| Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
500 |
0.022 |
$11.00 |
$0.00 |
+0.0% |
| Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
160 |
0.060 |
$9.68 |
$-3.56 |
-26.9% |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31? |
Yes |
292 |
0.029 |
$8.62 |
$0.15 |
+1.8% |
| Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
Yes |
41 |
0.095 |
$3.90 |
$-0.87 |
-18.3% |
| Iran leadership change by August 31? |
Yes |
152 |
0.023 |
$3.49 |
$-3.66 |
-51.2% |
| Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
99 |
0.023 |
$2.27 |
$-0.58 |
-20.4% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? |
No |
100 |
0.003 |
$0.25 |
$-1.25 |
-83.3% |