PnL (30d)

−$940

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$940

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-12.6%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

24%

49W / 157L · 209 open

Win Return (30d)

27%

113W / 300L · 2 open

Trades (30d)

415

across 104 markets · ~4 per market

EV / position

−$15.93

avg win $69 · loss $38

Profit Factor

0.47

$825 won / $1,765 lost

Reward / Risk

1.83

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$84

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	23.8% 49W/157L	104	$13,752
🏛 Politics	0.0% 0W/4L	15	$718
🎬 Culture	—	3	$151
⚽ Sports	—	2	$110

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

21 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Yes	1,031	0.625	$644.36	$12.53	+2.0%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	453	0.820	$371.46	$104.19	+39.0%
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?	Yes	705	0.460	$324.30	$13.15	+4.2%
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?	Yes	1,178	0.125	$147.30	$-12.19	-7.6%
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?	Yes	300	0.370	$111.00	$6.00	+5.7%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	3,510	0.028	$96.53	$-30.10	-23.8%
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?	Yes	406	0.225	$91.35	$-14.15	-13.4%
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	29,370	0.003	$73.42	$-30.22	-29.2%
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?	Yes	250	0.250	$62.50	$15.00	+31.6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?	Yes	376	0.139	$52.22	$3.32	+6.8%
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	500	0.065	$32.50	$-7.50	-18.8%
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	2,600	0.013	$32.50	$-9.10	-21.9%
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?	Yes	160	0.098	$15.60	$2.36	+17.8%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?	Yes	133	0.115	$15.22	$2.00	+15.1%
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31?	Yes	292	0.038	$11.25	$2.78	+32.8%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	500	0.022	$11.00	$0.00	+0.0%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?	Yes	44	0.130	$5.72	$0.44	+8.3%
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	41	0.094	$3.88	$-0.90	-18.7%
Iran leadership change by August 31?	Yes	152	0.023	$3.49	$-3.66	-51.2%
Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?	Yes	99	0.023	$2.27	$-0.58	-20.4%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?	No	100	0.002	$0.15	$-1.35	-90.0%