PnL (30d)

−$1

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$0

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

—

no reliable basis

Win Resolved (30d)

50%

1W / 1L · 31 open

Win Return (30d)

97%

32W / 1L

Trades (30d)

33

across 3 markets · ~11 per market

EV / position

−$0.74

avg win $0 · loss $1

Profit Factor

0.02

$0 won / $1 lost

Reward / Risk

0.02

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

$0

no drawdown

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	62.5% 5W/3L	7	$75
🏛 Politics	100.0% 1W/0L	2	$2

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

11 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	18	0.835	$15.07	$2.30	+18.0%
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	87	0.105	$9.13	$-10.87	-54.3%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	35	0.180	$6.35	$-2.47	-28.0%
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	6	0.820	$4.65	$0.91	+24.2%
Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?	Yes	89	0.035	$3.15	$-5.75	-64.6%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	Yes	74	0.042	$3.07	$-16.93	-84.6%
X banned in any European country by December 31?	Yes	20	0.155	$3.03	$-8.43	-73.6%
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?	Yes	8	0.215	$1.70	$0.04	+2.4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	Yes	125	0.011	$1.44	$-18.56	-92.8%
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	Yes	4	0.130	$0.54	$-0.96	-63.9%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	41	0.002	$0.06	$-1.44	-95.9%