| Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026? |
No |
940 |
0.750 |
$705.00 |
$54.58 |
+8.4% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? |
Yes |
435 |
0.999 |
$434.35 |
$94.53 |
+27.8% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31? |
Yes |
400 |
0.915 |
$366.00 |
$18.00 |
+5.2% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
370 |
0.953 |
$352.43 |
$39.93 |
+12.8% |
| Will Trump and Putin not meet? |
No |
940 |
0.255 |
$239.70 |
$-1.14 |
-0.5% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? |
No |
200 |
0.976 |
$195.10 |
$28.01 |
+16.8% |
| Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026? |
No |
250 |
0.615 |
$153.74 |
$14.66 |
+10.5% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher? |
No |
150 |
0.966 |
$144.82 |
$11.32 |
+8.5% |
| Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $8B by August 31? |
No |
130 |
0.885 |
$115.05 |
$2.33 |
+2.1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
No |
250 |
0.385 |
$96.25 |
$-9.15 |
-8.7% |
| Will Discord IPO by September 30, 2026? |
No |
100 |
0.955 |
$95.50 |
$17.57 |
+22.5% |
| Beezie FDV above $50M one day after launch? |
Yes |
110 |
0.765 |
$84.15 |
$2.75 |
+3.4% |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 80% or higher? |
No |
116 |
0.711 |
$82.60 |
$-15.18 |
-15.5% |
| Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
85 |
0.685 |
$58.20 |
$23.54 |
+67.9% |
| Iran successfully targets shipping by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
85 |
0.610 |
$52.08 |
$-1.27 |
-2.4% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? |
No |
60 |
0.840 |
$50.40 |
$0.00 |
+0.0% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30? |
No |
400 |
0.120 |
$48.00 |
$-20.00 |
-29.4% |
| Discord IPO before 2027? |
Yes |
156 |
0.294 |
$45.81 |
$4.22 |
+10.1% |
| Will Discord IPO by October 31, 2026? |
No |
56 |
0.805 |
$44.87 |
$3.50 |
+8.5% |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
50 |
0.850 |
$42.45 |
$10.99 |
+34.9% |
| Will Bloomberg IPO by March 31, 2027? |
No |
50 |
0.780 |
$39.00 |
$-4.00 |
-9.3% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
38 |
1.000 |
$37.98 |
$7.58 |
+24.9% |
| Will Shein's closing IPO market cap be at least 400B HKD? |
No |
42 |
0.865 |
$36.33 |
$6.09 |
+20.1% |
| Iran full airspace closure by September 30? |
No |
45 |
0.785 |
$35.33 |
$0.53 |
+1.5% |
| Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31? |
Yes |
80 |
0.385 |
$30.80 |
$-17.80 |
-36.6% |