| Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026? |
No |
940 |
0.750 |
$705.00 |
$54.58 |
+8.4% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? |
Yes |
435 |
0.999 |
$434.35 |
$94.53 |
+27.8% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31? |
Yes |
400 |
0.915 |
$366.00 |
$18.00 |
+5.2% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
370 |
0.955 |
$353.17 |
$40.67 |
+13.0% |
| Will Trump and Putin not meet? |
No |
940 |
0.255 |
$239.70 |
$-1.14 |
-0.5% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? |
No |
200 |
0.975 |
$194.90 |
$27.81 |
+16.6% |
| Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026? |
No |
250 |
0.620 |
$154.99 |
$15.91 |
+11.4% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher? |
No |
150 |
0.966 |
$144.82 |
$11.32 |
+8.5% |
| Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $8B by August 31? |
No |
130 |
0.870 |
$113.10 |
$0.38 |
+0.3% |
| Will Discord IPO by September 30, 2026? |
No |
100 |
0.950 |
$95.00 |
$17.07 |
+21.9% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
No |
250 |
0.375 |
$93.75 |
$-11.65 |
-11.1% |
| Beezie FDV above $50M one day after launch? |
Yes |
110 |
0.765 |
$84.15 |
$2.75 |
+3.4% |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 80% or higher? |
No |
116 |
0.715 |
$83.01 |
$-14.77 |
-15.1% |
| Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
85 |
0.690 |
$58.61 |
$23.96 |
+69.1% |
| Iran successfully targets shipping by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
85 |
0.610 |
$52.08 |
$-1.27 |
-2.4% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? |
No |
60 |
0.840 |
$50.40 |
$0.00 |
+0.0% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30? |
No |
400 |
0.120 |
$48.00 |
$-20.00 |
-29.4% |
| Discord IPO before 2027? |
Yes |
156 |
0.288 |
$44.95 |
$3.36 |
+8.1% |
| Will Discord IPO by October 31, 2026? |
No |
56 |
0.790 |
$44.03 |
$2.66 |
+6.4% |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
50 |
0.840 |
$41.95 |
$10.49 |
+33.3% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
38 |
0.999 |
$37.96 |
$7.56 |
+24.9% |
| Will Bloomberg IPO by March 31, 2027? |
No |
50 |
0.745 |
$37.25 |
$-5.75 |
-13.4% |
| Will Shein's closing IPO market cap be at least 400B HKD? |
No |
42 |
0.865 |
$36.33 |
$6.09 |
+20.1% |
| Iran full airspace closure by September 30? |
No |
45 |
0.795 |
$35.77 |
$0.97 |
+2.8% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? |
No |
370 |
0.085 |
$31.45 |
$-33.72 |
-51.7% |