| Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.987 |
$986.48 |
$43.50 |
+4.6% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
800 |
0.835 |
$668.00 |
$68.00 |
+11.3% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
Yes |
400 |
0.855 |
$342.00 |
$118.00 |
+52.7% |
| Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? |
No |
400 |
0.805 |
$322.00 |
$114.00 |
+54.8% |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31? |
No |
230 |
0.900 |
$207.07 |
$51.62 |
+33.2% |
| Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? |
No |
200 |
0.936 |
$187.30 |
$21.30 |
+12.8% |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? |
No |
200 |
0.723 |
$144.50 |
$6.70 |
+4.9% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
200 |
0.645 |
$129.00 |
$25.00 |
+24.0% |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? |
No |
100 |
0.977 |
$97.64 |
$4.65 |
+5.0% |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? |
No |
100 |
0.825 |
$82.58 |
$9.47 |
+13.0% |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? |
Yes |
602 |
0.095 |
$57.19 |
$-27.09 |
-32.1% |
| OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? |
Yes |
300 |
0.170 |
$51.00 |
$21.00 |
+70.0% |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? |
Yes |
417 |
0.080 |
$33.36 |
$-8.34 |
-20.0% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
Yes |
800 |
0.034 |
$27.20 |
$-8.80 |
-24.4% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
200 |
0.117 |
$23.30 |
$-11.90 |
-33.8% |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? |
No |
20 |
0.972 |
$19.43 |
$8.63 |
+79.9% |
| Blue tsunami in 2026? |
Yes |
39 |
0.405 |
$15.63 |
$4.82 |
+44.6% |