| Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.987 |
$986.48 |
$43.50 |
+4.6% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
800 |
0.845 |
$676.00 |
$76.00 |
+12.7% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
Yes |
400 |
0.855 |
$342.00 |
$118.00 |
+52.7% |
| Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? |
No |
400 |
0.805 |
$322.00 |
$114.00 |
+54.8% |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31? |
No |
230 |
0.900 |
$207.07 |
$51.62 |
+33.2% |
| Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? |
No |
200 |
0.936 |
$187.20 |
$21.20 |
+12.8% |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? |
No |
200 |
0.724 |
$144.70 |
$6.90 |
+5.0% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
200 |
0.655 |
$131.00 |
$27.00 |
+26.0% |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? |
No |
100 |
0.976 |
$97.54 |
$4.55 |
+4.9% |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? |
No |
100 |
0.825 |
$82.58 |
$9.47 |
+13.0% |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? |
Yes |
602 |
0.095 |
$57.19 |
$-27.09 |
-32.1% |
| OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? |
Yes |
300 |
0.165 |
$49.50 |
$19.50 |
+65.0% |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? |
Yes |
417 |
0.095 |
$39.61 |
$-2.08 |
-5.0% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
Yes |
800 |
0.031 |
$24.80 |
$-11.20 |
-31.1% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
200 |
0.117 |
$23.30 |
$-11.90 |
-33.8% |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? |
No |
20 |
0.972 |
$19.43 |
$8.63 |
+79.9% |
| Blue tsunami in 2026? |
Yes |
39 |
0.405 |
$15.63 |
$4.82 |
+44.6% |