PnL (30d)

−$9

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$0

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-12.7%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

32%

36W / 76L · 5 open

Win Return (30d)

33%

39W / 78L

Trades (30d)

117

across 9 markets · ~13 per market

EV / position

−$1.54

avg win $4 · loss $4

Profit Factor

0.44

$7 won / $17 lost

Reward / Risk

0.89

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$4

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	34.4% 87W/166L	24	$353
🏛 Politics	43.1% 25W/33L	3	$46

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

23 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027?	Yes	188	0.025	$4.77	$3.89	+444.3%
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?	Yes	14	0.175	$2.45	$0.55	+29.0%
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-11 House seat?	Yes	20	0.105	$2.10	$-2.50	-54.3%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	5	0.395	$1.98	$0.27	+16.2%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?	Yes	75	0.025	$1.84	$0.38	+26.3%
Iran successfully targets shipping on August 2, 2026?	Yes	130	0.014	$1.82	$-0.08	-4.2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	75	0.024	$1.75	$1.14	+185.7%
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027?	Yes	5	0.145	$0.72	$0.28	+61.1%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Yes	10	0.065	$0.65	$-0.15	-18.8%
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	109	0.004	$0.49	$-3.52	-87.8%
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?	Yes	10	0.045	$0.45	$-1.15	-71.9%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	5	0.084	$0.42	$0.16	+63.7%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	60	0.006	$0.39	$-0.19	-32.3%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	75	0.005	$0.38	$-0.30	-44.4%
Will the Republican Party win the NC-12 House seat?	Yes	5	0.055	$0.28	$0.03	+10.0%
Iran successfully targets shipping on August 1, 2026?	Yes	6	0.037	$0.21	$0.04	+24.9%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	100	0.002	$0.15	$-0.15	-50.0%
Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	12	0.010	$0.12	$-0.72	-85.7%
Will Mistral be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	59	0.002	$0.09	$-0.09	-50.0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	56	0.002	$0.08	$-0.98	-92.1%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?	Yes	5	0.015	$0.07	$0.04	+141.3%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	5	0.014	$0.07	$0.01	+21.6%
Will Blake Snell win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?	Yes	7	0.001	$0.00	$-0.08	-96.1%