PnL (30d)

−$61

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$4

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-29.4%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

34%

87W / 166L · 19 open

Win Return (30d)

38%

104W / 168L

Trades (30d)

272

across 24 markets · ~11 per market

EV / position

−$3.83

avg win $4 · loss $8

Profit Factor

0.26

$22 won / $83 lost

Reward / Risk

0.57

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$16

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	34.4% 87W/166L	24	$353
🏛 Politics	42.9% 27W/36L	3	$48

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

23 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Iran successfully targets shipping on August 2, 2026?	Yes	130	0.038	$5.00	$3.10	+163.4%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027?	Yes	188	0.025	$4.77	$3.89	+444.3%
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?	Yes	14	0.175	$2.45	$0.55	+29.0%
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-11 House seat?	Yes	20	0.105	$2.10	$-2.50	-54.3%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	5	0.405	$2.02	$0.32	+19.1%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?	Yes	75	0.024	$1.80	$0.34	+23.7%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	75	0.024	$1.75	$1.14	+185.7%
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027?	Yes	5	0.142	$0.71	$0.26	+58.2%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Yes	10	0.065	$0.65	$-0.15	-18.8%
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	109	0.004	$0.49	$-3.52	-87.8%
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?	Yes	10	0.045	$0.45	$-1.15	-71.9%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	5	0.086	$0.43	$0.17	+67.6%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	60	0.006	$0.39	$-0.19	-32.3%
Will the Republican Party win the NC-12 House seat?	Yes	5	0.055	$0.28	$0.03	+10.0%
Iran successfully targets shipping on August 1, 2026?	Yes	6	0.042	$0.23	$0.07	+39.9%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	75	0.003	$0.19	$-0.49	-72.2%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	100	0.002	$0.15	$-0.15	-50.0%
Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	12	0.010	$0.12	$-0.72	-85.7%
Will Mistral be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	59	0.002	$0.09	$-0.09	-50.0%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?	Yes	5	0.017	$0.09	$0.06	+183.3%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	56	0.002	$0.08	$-0.98	-92.1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	5	0.015	$0.07	$0.02	+30.3%
Will Blake Snell win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?	Yes	7	0.001	$0.00	$-0.08	-96.1%