scout
0x2d99e29c4f066ba32098c65e4c7454b277d94ca3
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days.
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PnL (30d)
+$2,183
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$3,717
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+0.3%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
73%
212W / 80L · 2,027 open
Win Return (30d)
39%
226W / 350L · 1,743 open
Trades (30d)
2,319
across 23 markets · ~101 per market
EV / position
+$121.27
avg win $373 · loss $4,153
Profit Factor
1.53
$6,336 won / $4,153 lost
Reward / Risk
0.09
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$4,153
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $433,815 · all-time $49,798,831
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
8 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
No |
150,000 |
0.790 |
$118,575.00 |
$43,575.00 |
+58.1% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
129,999 |
0.845 |
$109,848.91 |
$2,062.04 |
+1.9% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
65,238 |
1.000 |
$65,204.90 |
$124.80 |
+0.2% |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
150,000 |
0.209 |
$31,425.00 |
$-43,575.00 |
-58.1% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
17,000 |
0.795 |
$13,514.82 |
$4,066.38 |
+43.0% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
Yes |
9,000 |
0.865 |
$7,785.00 |
$945.01 |
+13.8% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
Yes |
8,798 |
0.840 |
$7,390.51 |
$1,495.70 |
+25.4% |
| Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? |
No |
1,000 |
0.915 |
$914.99 |
$25.00 |
+2.8% |