PnL (30d)

−$1,385

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$23

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-1.7%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

43%

2,256W / 2,975L · 399 open

Win Return (30d)

44%

2,446W / 3,112L · 72 open

Trades (30d)

5,630

across 443 markets · ~13 per market

EV / position

−$3.64

avg win $61 · loss $53

Profit Factor

0.88

$10,044 won / $11,429 lost

Reward / Risk

1.16

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$523

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	43.1% 2,256W/2,975L	443	$144,564
⚽ Sports	51.3% 40W/38L	23	$2,055
💵 Economy	67.1% 51W/25L	11	$3,544
🏛 Politics	66.2% 43W/22L	9	$2,786
🌤 Weather	40.7% 37W/54L	8	$998
₿ Crypto	0.0% 0W/2L	5	$282
🔬 Science	—	1	$46
🤖 Tech	100.0% 3W/0L	1	$11
🎬 Culture	100.0% 3W/0L	1	$11

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

67 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	No	470	0.555	$261.09	$-1.77	-0.7%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	No	261	0.960	$250.67	$1.32	+0.5%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	371	0.635	$235.83	$-36.30	-13.3%
Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July?	No	341	0.685	$233.87	$-5.12	-2.1%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?	No	235	0.986	$232.08	$1.77	+0.8%
Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 7?	Yes	206	0.790	$162.55	$80.25	+97.5%
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-25 House seat?	No	359	0.390	$140.01	$-17.75	-11.3%
Natural Disaster in 2026?	Yes	556	0.225	$125.20	$-52.85	-29.7%
Will Jay Schroeder be the Wisconsin Secretary of State Republican nominee?	No	296	0.385	$113.81	$-124.61	-52.3%
Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July?	Yes	236	0.460	$108.62	$24.72	+29.5%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?	No	104	0.971	$101.24	$25.13	+33.0%
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?	Yes	299	0.325	$97.03	$-38.46	-28.4%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	No	473	0.165	$78.07	$-16.57	-17.5%
Will Andy Ogles be the TN-05 Republican nominee?	No	319	0.200	$63.85	$-27.09	-29.8%
Will the Republican Party win the IN-05 House seat?	No	439	0.145	$63.63	$-46.55	-42.2%
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	No	103	0.615	$63.60	$-7.76	-10.9%
Will Vladan Đokić win the next Serbia presidential election?	Yes	294	0.215	$63.23	$-26.08	-29.2%
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	292	0.145	$42.36	$-96.23	-69.4%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	Yes	300	0.135	$40.50	$-4.50	-10.0%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	100	0.385	$38.50	$-3.50	-8.3%
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?	Yes	300	0.125	$37.47	$-64.44	-63.2%
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	348	0.107	$37.28	$-7.37	-16.5%
Will "Day and Night" - Carly Rae Jepsen first week album sales be between 30k and 40k?	Yes	180	0.185	$33.30	$-26.10	-43.9%
Will annual inflation be 3.5% in July?	Yes	194	0.165	$32.01	$-5.62	-14.9%
Will Donald Trump visit India in 2026?	Yes	300	0.105	$31.45	$-28.50	-47.5%