PnL (30d)

−$272

Weather · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$12

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-1.8%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

43%

2,302W / 3,090L · 1,058 open

Win Return (30d)

43%

2,332W / 3,153L · 965 open

Trades (30d)

6,450

across 2,343 markets · ~3 per market

EV / position

−$0.17

avg win $3 · loss $3

Profit Factor

0.89

$2,140 won / $2,410 lost

Reward / Risk

0.85

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$74

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	64.0% 28,420W/15,972L	17885	$740,331
⚽ Sports	63.3% 2,117W/1,229L	2084	$72,020
🌤 Weather	39.2% 576W/894L	989	$3,715
🏛 Politics	38.0% 150W/245L	489	$19,893
🎬 Culture	48.4% 247W/263L	373	$6,122
💵 Economy	85.6% 155W/26L	226	$17,013
🤖 Tech	72.7% 8W/3L	180	$3,124
₿ Crypto	88.5% 54W/7L	38	$1,256
🔬 Science	100.0% 5W/0L	13	$158

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 36 and 39 inclusive?	Yes	271	0.807	$218.63	$103.58	+90.0%
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-07-16?	Yes	297	0.365	$108.57	$-4.46	-3.9%
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?	Yes	241	0.418	$100.69	$-8.44	-7.7%
Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-07-16?	Yes	297	0.335	$99.65	$19.33	+24.1%
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 40% and 60%?	Yes	146	0.630	$91.77	$37.21	+68.2%
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?	Yes	241	0.368	$88.54	$30.75	+53.2%
Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1% and 2%?	Yes	97	0.699	$67.95	$11.67	+20.7%
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	125	0.540	$67.69	$22.80	+50.8%
Will Chicago Fire FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC end in a draw?	Yes	297	0.220	$65.44	$0.00	+0.0%
Will "The Pitt" win 4 or 5 awards at the Emmys?	Yes	116	0.480	$55.52	$5.34	+10.6%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	125	0.410	$51.39	$6.36	+14.1%
Will "The Pitt" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys?	Yes	116	0.390	$45.11	$24.17	+115.4%
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?	Yes	146	0.215	$31.30	$-3.64	-10.4%
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision?	Yes	35	0.815	$28.76	$2.05	+7.7%
Will James Fishback win 10–15% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	Yes	43	0.545	$23.62	$15.09	+177.0%
Will Zach LaVine play for the Portland Trail Blazers in 2026-27?	Yes	49	0.470	$23.12	$21.63	+1451.0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-04-12?	Yes	48	0.480	$22.85	$12.38	+118.2%
Will Zach LaVine play for the New Orleans Pelicans in 2026-27?	Yes	49	0.440	$21.64	$20.15	+1352.0%
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 20% and 40%?	Yes	146	0.148	$21.62	$8.06	+59.4%
Will New England Revolution win on 2026-03-07?	Yes	53	0.385	$20.41	$1.85	+10.0%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-06?	Yes	48	0.415	$20.12	$10.02	+99.2%
Will Colman Domingo – “Euphoria” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a drama series?	Yes	55	0.365	$20.07	$3.33	+19.9%
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026?	Yes	241	0.083	$19.85	$2.04	+11.5%
Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 40 and 43 inclusive?	Yes	271	0.073	$19.78	$-44.73	-69.3%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on August 5?	Yes	53	0.340	$17.99	$15.71	+689.2%