PnL (30d)

−$25

Crypto · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$9

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-1.1%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

73%

113W / 41L · 28 open

Win Return (30d)

72%

113W / 43L · 26 open

Trades (30d)

182

across 103 markets · ~2 per market

EV / position

−$0.31

avg win $1 · loss $4

Profit Factor

0.71

$60 won / $84 lost

Reward / Risk

0.22

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$45

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	64.0% 28,457W/15,999L	17894	$740,754
⚽ Sports	63.5% 2,113W/1,217L	1957	$70,045
🌤 Weather	36.5% 474W/825L	900	$3,120
🏛 Politics	35.6% 131W/237L	473	$18,183
🎬 Culture	47.1% 227W/255L	354	$5,825
💵 Economy	86.1% 155W/25L	225	$16,953
🤖 Tech	80.0% 8W/2L	179	$2,980
₿ Crypto	88.5% 54W/7L	38	$1,256
🔬 Science	100.0% 4W/0L	12	$120

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 36 and 39 inclusive?	Yes	271	0.794	$215.11	$100.05	+87.0%
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-07-16?	Yes	297	0.365	$108.57	$-4.46	-3.9%
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?	Yes	241	0.418	$100.69	$-8.44	-7.7%
Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-07-16?	Yes	297	0.330	$98.16	$17.85	+22.2%
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 40% and 60%?	Yes	146	0.627	$91.34	$36.78	+67.4%
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?	Yes	241	0.360	$86.73	$28.94	+50.1%
Will 3 Sanders endorsees win August 4 primaries?	Yes	90	0.924	$83.16	$12.96	+18.5%
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	125	0.545	$68.32	$23.43	+52.2%
Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1% and 2%?	Yes	97	0.699	$67.95	$11.67	+20.7%
Will Chicago Fire FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC end in a draw?	Yes	297	0.220	$65.44	$0.00	+0.0%
Will "The Pitt" win 4 or 5 awards at the Emmys?	Yes	116	0.480	$55.52	$5.34	+10.6%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	125	0.405	$50.77	$5.73	+12.7%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on August 5?	Yes	52	0.965	$50.49	$47.75	+1746.4%
Will "The Pitt" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys?	Yes	116	0.390	$45.11	$24.17	+115.4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on August 5?	Yes	57	0.735	$41.89	$14.18	+51.1%
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?	Yes	146	0.215	$31.30	$-3.64	-10.4%
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision?	Yes	35	0.840	$29.64	$2.93	+11.0%
Will James Fishback win 10–15% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	Yes	43	0.545	$23.62	$15.09	+177.0%
Will Zach LaVine play for the Portland Trail Blazers in 2026-27?	Yes	49	0.465	$22.87	$21.38	+1434.5%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-04-12?	Yes	48	0.480	$22.85	$12.38	+118.2%
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 20% and 40%?	Yes	146	0.152	$22.13	$8.57	+63.2%
Will Zach LaVine play for the New Orleans Pelicans in 2026-27?	Yes	49	0.440	$21.64	$20.15	+1352.0%
Will New England Revolution win on 2026-03-07?	Yes	53	0.385	$20.41	$1.85	+10.0%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-06?	Yes	48	0.415	$20.12	$10.02	+99.2%
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026?	Yes	241	0.083	$19.85	$2.04	+11.5%