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Trader leaderboard/taralynnbar

taralynnbar

0x2aa0785974c55c3a98d0a44bb6cc159ce9a9ee01
Scoped to Economy — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$14
Economy · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$1
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+0.5%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
29%
4W / 10L · 10 open
Win Return (30d)
50%
12W / 12L
Trades (30d)
24
across 11 markets · ~2 per market
EV / position
+$2.04
avg win $7 · loss $2
Profit Factor
3.36
$20 won / $6 lost
Reward / Risk
4.48
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$3
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · all-time $5,467,573

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 23.5% 4W/13L 21 $8,346
₿ Crypto 0.0% 0W/2L 2 $890
💵 Economy 0.0% 0W/2L 2 $890
🏛 Politics 2 $124

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

25 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026? No 863 0.941 $812.50 $10.34 +1.3%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No 500 0.968 $483.75 $12.75 +2.7%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No 500 0.885 $442.50 $7.50 +1.7%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? No 488 0.855 $417.32 $16.11 +4.0%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? No 509 0.815 $414.78 $-19.80 -4.6%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December? No 352 0.949 $334.18 $24.30 +7.8%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026? No 293 0.940 $275.31 $21.16 +8.3%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026 No 310 0.865 $268.15 $10.85 +4.2%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027? No 312 0.795 $247.95 $-25.77 -9.4%
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? No 200 0.974 $194.70 $4.70 +2.5%
Trump meets with Putin by September 30? No 200 0.935 $187.00 $7.00 +3.9%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December? No 194 0.935 $181.65 $10.69 +6.2%
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? No 200 0.880 $175.99 $10.00 +6.0%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? No 186 0.790 $146.93 $-9.30 -6.0%
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? No 165 0.845 $139.20 $9.17 +7.1%
Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026? No 139 0.855 $118.47 $29.79 +33.6%
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by August 31, 2026? No 100 0.983 $98.25 $3.74 +4.0%
Will Consensys IPO by September 30 2026? No 99 0.988 $97.37 $4.97 +5.4%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027? No 207 0.435 $89.93 $-76.03 -45.8%
Will Democratic Senate incumbents not win in more than four nominating elections in the 2026 cycle? Yes 50 0.022 $1.12 $-0.38 -25.0%
Will Democratic Senate incumbents not win in exactly four nominating elections in the 2026 cycle? Yes 50 0.015 $0.75 $-0.35 -31.8%
Will Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-01? Yes 3 0.120 $0.39 $-0.55 -58.6%
Will John E. Sununu be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Hampshire? No 1 0.042 $0.05 $-0.06 -53.3%
Will the Republican Party win the CA-17 House seat? Yes 1 0.029 $0.03 $0.01 +29.2%
Will Erin Stewart win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Republican primary election? Yes 1 0.005 $0.01 $-0.56 -99.0%