TheSwingState
0x2a16e270f36f5b00dd11467df36e1c3121ae6f38
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days.
← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$42
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$3
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-0.7%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
75%
56W / 19L · 2 open
Win Return (30d)
74%
57W / 20L
Trades (30d)
77
across 32 markets · ~2 per market
EV / position
−$1.40
avg win $10 · loss $28
Profit Factor
0.84
$212 won / $254 lost
Reward / Risk
0.36
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$81
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $5,545 · all-time $148,950
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
3 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? |
No |
466 |
0.983 |
$457.85 |
$0.90 |
+0.2% |
| Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid? |
Yes |
496 |
0.590 |
$292.36 |
$1.09 |
+0.4% |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? |
No |
239 |
0.983 |
$234.94 |
$3.58 |
+1.5% |