PnL (30d)

−$552

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$729

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-3.2%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

9%

155W / 1,544L · 2,843 open

Win Return (30d)

8%

330W / 3,962L · 250 open

Trades (30d)

4,542

across 1,308 markets · ~3 per market

EV / position

−$1.10

avg win $3 · loss $2

Profit Factor

0.23

$166 won / $718 lost

Reward / Risk

2.09

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$176

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	9.1% 155W/1,544L	1308	$34,321
⚽ Sports	1.7% 2W/116L	117	$2,264
🏛 Politics	0.0% 0W/34L	86	$2,454
🎬 Culture	0.0% 0W/30L	52	$1,905
🌤 Weather	8.0% 7W/81L	47	$1,010
💵 Economy	20.5% 9W/35L	32	$723
🤖 Tech	0.0% 0W/6L	17	$797
₿ Crypto	0.0% 0W/2L	16	$569
🔬 Science	—	3	$33

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

95 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?	Yes	1,606	0.135	$216.81	$-163.60	-43.0%
Will Waymo launch in Las Vegas, NV by December 31 2026?	Yes	168	0.730	$122.82	$-6.46	-5.0%
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	150	0.675	$101.15	$-2.75	-2.6%
Will Waymo launch in Denver, CO by December 31 2026?	Yes	123	0.795	$98.04	$-3.90	-3.8%
Will Waymo launch in San Diego, CA by December 31 2026?	Yes	108	0.795	$85.46	$-0.15	-0.2%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	77	0.855	$65.76	$5.69	+9.5%
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	71	0.750	$53.33	$8.26	+18.3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	100	0.455	$45.69	$6.82	+17.5%
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	50	0.750	$37.50	$2.50	+7.1%
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?	Yes	133	0.245	$32.62	$-17.07	-34.4%
Will Waymo operate in 28-31 cities on December 31 2026?	Yes	272	0.115	$31.24	$21.59	+223.8%
Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	40	0.755	$30.20	$5.38	+21.7%
Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Yes	50	0.595	$29.73	$20.70	+229.1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	170	0.165	$28.05	$-15.95	-36.2%
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31?	Yes	150	0.175	$26.21	$-6.38	-19.6%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	70	0.335	$23.45	$-1.05	-4.3%
Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Yes	343	0.068	$23.16	$0.43	+1.9%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $50 by December 31, 2026?	No	100	0.205	$20.50	$-2.35	-10.3%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	50	0.405	$20.25	$-2.75	-12.0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	40	0.505	$20.20	$0.00	+0.0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	119	0.114	$13.48	$-33.39	-71.2%
Will Waymo launch in Portland, OR by December 31 2026?	Yes	100	0.130	$13.00	$-17.00	-56.7%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	55	0.235	$12.94	$-3.98	-23.5%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	No	20	0.635	$12.70	$1.90	+17.6%
Will Waymo operate in 24-27 cities on December 31 2026?	Yes	133	0.095	$12.61	$4.97	+65.1%