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Trader leaderboard/polopilo

polopilo

0x299cb40195d270438f8950902f242d796457d85e
Scoped to Economy — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$487
Economy · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
$0
no open positions
ROI (30d)
+5.9%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
90%
218W / 23L
Win Return (30d)
90%
218W / 23L
Trades (30d)
241
across 83 markets · ~3 per market
EV / position
+$5.87
avg win $7 · loss $11
Profit Factor
8.44
$553 won / $66 lost
Reward / Risk
0.66
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
$0
no drawdown
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $7,390 · all-time $735,068

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 92.3% 2,089W/175L 1027 $105,109
🎬 Culture 90.9% 199W/20L 144 $13,657
🤖 Tech 85.4% 111W/19L 73 $6,626
🏛 Politics 100.0% 52W/0L 47 $3,899
💵 Economy 100.0% 6W/0L 3 $186
₿ Crypto 100.0% 1W/0L 1 $5

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

32 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will Airbnb say "Fiscal" 10+ times during earnings call? No 369 0.958 $353.89 $-4.24 -1.2%
Will no Rogan episode air? No 160 0.993 $158.75 $0.45 +0.3%
Will Uber say "Grocery" during earnings call? Yes 149 0.960 $143.04 $-2.98 -2.0%
Will Big Brother episode not air? No 116 0.989 $115.15 $1.05 +0.9%
Will anyone say "Diary" during Big Brother E15? Yes 111 0.910 $100.82 $-6.69 -6.2%
Will anyone say "Evict" during Big Brother E15? Yes 106 0.855 $90.63 $-12.18 -11.8%
Will Big Brother episode not air? No 128 0.515 $66.16 $-60.16 -47.6%
Will Disney say "Domestic" during earnings call? Yes 66 0.950 $62.43 $3.08 +5.2%
Will Airbnb say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 10+ times during earnings call? Yes 69 0.740 $51.27 $-14.81 -22.4%
Will Rick Devens be evicted in Big Brother season 28 (Week 4)? No 43 0.994 $43.15 $0.61 +1.4%
Will "Right" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of August 3? Yes 35 0.972 $33.83 $-0.38 -1.1%
Will Trump’s remarks not air? No 31 0.992 $30.61 $0.00 +0.0%
Will "Rigged" be in the headlines this week? No 31 0.968 $30.00 $1.49 +5.2%
Will Uber say "Waymo" during earnings call? Yes 32 0.920 $29.84 $3.64 +13.9%
Will Lyft (LYFT) Q2 rides be above 245M? Yes 34 0.755 $25.67 $-2.41 -8.6%
Will "Think" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast? Yes 25 0.972 $24.29 $-0.17 -0.7%
Will Western Digital (WDC) Q4 exabytes shipped be above 255? No 28 0.795 $22.21 $-1.54 -6.5%
Will "Time" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast? Yes 18 0.969 $17.59 $-0.21 -1.2%
Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026? No 16 0.972 $15.55 $-0.13 -0.8%
Will Disney say "Valuation" during earnings call? No 21 0.725 $15.43 $4.15 +36.8%
Will Uber say "Expansion" during earnings call? Yes 20 0.745 $14.90 $-2.90 -16.3%
Will Haley Thogmartin be evicted in Big Brother season 28 (Week 4)? No 15 0.971 $14.56 $-0.29 -2.0%
Will Disney say "ESPN" during earnings call? Yes 13 0.988 $13.24 $-0.03 -0.2%
Will Khamenei post 35-39 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026? No 10 0.995 $9.95 $0.04 +0.5%
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026? No 10 0.994 $9.94 $0.04 +0.4%