| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
365,841 |
0.835 |
$305,477.59 |
$50,412.58 |
+19.8% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? |
Yes |
28,537 |
0.999 |
$28,494.08 |
$597.08 |
+2.1% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
Yes |
21,036 |
0.945 |
$19,878.62 |
$1,173.72 |
+6.3% |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? |
No |
19,268 |
0.900 |
$17,341.17 |
$4,018.93 |
+30.2% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? |
No |
13,972 |
0.890 |
$12,434.92 |
$1,235.95 |
+11.0% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? |
Yes |
6,113 |
0.999 |
$6,103.69 |
$279.55 |
+4.8% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? |
No |
6,511 |
0.930 |
$6,055.33 |
$445.33 |
+7.9% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 15? |
No |
5,385 |
0.940 |
$5,062.30 |
$256.31 |
+5.3% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? |
No |
5,630 |
0.850 |
$4,785.70 |
$105.71 |
+2.3% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
Yes |
5,412 |
0.855 |
$4,626.93 |
$489.94 |
+11.8% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
No |
3,799 |
0.966 |
$3,669.69 |
$177.69 |
+5.1% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
6,000 |
0.259 |
$1,551.00 |
$-99.00 |
-6.0% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August? |
No |
1,337 |
0.971 |
$1,298.42 |
$90.42 |
+7.5% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August? |
No |
1,215 |
0.985 |
$1,196.54 |
$81.54 |
+7.3% |
| Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? |
Yes |
1,157 |
0.993 |
$1,148.58 |
$167.69 |
+17.1% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August? |
No |
596 |
0.955 |
$568.93 |
$35.63 |
+6.7% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
Yes |
336 |
0.825 |
$276.95 |
$71.95 |
+35.1% |