| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
365,841 |
0.835 |
$305,477.59 |
$50,412.58 |
+19.8% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? |
Yes |
28,537 |
0.999 |
$28,494.08 |
$597.08 |
+2.1% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
Yes |
21,036 |
0.945 |
$19,878.62 |
$1,173.72 |
+6.3% |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? |
No |
19,268 |
0.905 |
$17,437.51 |
$4,115.27 |
+30.9% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? |
No |
13,972 |
0.895 |
$12,504.78 |
$1,305.81 |
+11.7% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? |
Yes |
6,113 |
0.999 |
$6,103.69 |
$279.55 |
+4.8% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? |
No |
6,511 |
0.930 |
$6,055.33 |
$445.33 |
+7.9% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 15? |
No |
5,385 |
0.930 |
$5,008.44 |
$202.46 |
+4.2% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? |
No |
5,630 |
0.850 |
$4,785.70 |
$105.71 |
+2.3% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
Yes |
5,412 |
0.855 |
$4,626.93 |
$489.94 |
+11.8% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
No |
3,799 |
0.966 |
$3,669.69 |
$177.69 |
+5.1% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
6,000 |
0.260 |
$1,557.00 |
$-93.00 |
-5.6% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August? |
No |
1,337 |
0.972 |
$1,299.76 |
$91.76 |
+7.6% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August? |
No |
1,215 |
0.985 |
$1,196.54 |
$81.54 |
+7.3% |
| Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? |
Yes |
1,157 |
0.993 |
$1,148.58 |
$167.69 |
+17.1% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August? |
No |
596 |
0.959 |
$571.01 |
$37.71 |
+7.1% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
Yes |
336 |
0.825 |
$276.95 |
$71.95 |
+35.1% |