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Trader leaderboard/lottonakamoto

lottonakamoto

0x2884f98185d2005691d245f3e2e70b15d1e1d0c3
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$55
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$537
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-0.4%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
13%
5W / 34L · 631 open
Win Return (30d)
29%
196W / 469L · 5 open
Trades (30d)
670
across 63 markets · ~11 per market
EV / position
−$13.68
avg win $2 · loss $29
Profit Factor
0.07
$4 won / $59 lost
Reward / Risk
0.07
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$54
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $7,365 · all-time $675,669

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 53.3% 292W/256L 185 $52,430
🏛 Politics 0.0% 0W/30L 39 $7,043
🤖 Tech 10 $415
🔬 Science 6 $139
💵 Economy 4 $295
🎬 Culture 2 $26
🌤 Weather 2 $36
₿ Crypto 57.1% 4W/3L 2 $17
⚽ Sports 1 $27

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

102 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 7,717 0.254 $1,960.18 $-588.76 -23.1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 1,805 0.885 $1,597.84 $25.89 +1.6%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? No 1,335 0.925 $1,235.28 $44.88 +3.8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 1,261 0.775 $977.29 $-6.00 -0.6%
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31? No 662 0.860 $569.59 $-12.65 -2.2%
Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 2026? No 582 0.957 $557.29 $52.90 +10.5%
Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election? No 471 0.877 $413.16 $-4.55 -1.1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 369 0.845 $311.80 $-9.45 -2.9%
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 306 0.835 $255.53 $-4.91 -1.9%
Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026? No 250 0.945 $235.92 $1.25 +0.5%
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? No 341 0.655 $223.51 $39.24 +21.3%
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? No 222 0.948 $210.19 $4.87 +2.4%
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026? No 216 0.875 $188.80 $-0.99 -0.5%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 161 0.935 $150.53 $2.72 +1.8%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 148 0.915 $135.43 $2.60 +2.0%
NATO article 5 before 2027? No 144 0.935 $134.80 $-0.62 -0.5%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes 157 0.790 $124.39 $-6.57 -5.0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? No 270 0.445 $119.97 $-6.52 -5.2%
Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? No 113 0.939 $106.29 $4.02 +3.9%
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? Yes 154 0.625 $96.29 $1.36 +1.4%
Will voter turnout be less than 47% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election? No 96 0.940 $90.31 $1.78 +2.0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98 0.918 $89.96 $0.12 +0.1%
Will more than 16 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? No 89 0.989 $88.09 $0.96 +1.1%
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? No 101 0.855 $86.10 $1.07 +1.3%
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? No 121 0.710 $85.67 $-16.64 -16.3%