flipsss
0x285109735e915f14038a2f41322814e0d6b46b8c
Scoped to Weather — every figure below is this category, last 30 days.
← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$1,168
Weather · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
$0
no open positions
ROI (30d)
+26.7%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
43%
207W / 278L
Win Return (30d)
43%
207W / 278L
Trades (30d)
485
across 52 markets · ~9 per market
EV / position
+$22.46
avg win $95 · loss $23
Profit Factor
2.61
$1,894 won / $726 lost
Reward / Risk
4.17
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$41
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $48,446 · all-time $1,203,662
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
| Category |
Win Resolved (per trade) |
Markets |
Volume |
|
🌐 All markets
|
42.9%
1,658W/2,211L
|
319 |
$81,206 |
|
🌤 Weather
|
35.7%
15W/27L
|
11 |
$1,475 |
|
⚽ Sports
|
0.0%
0W/5L
|
3 |
$17 |
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
12 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 6? |
No |
297 |
0.985 |
$292.90 |
$30.70 |
+11.7% |
| Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? |
Yes |
250 |
0.880 |
$220.00 |
$62.10 |
+39.3% |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 5? |
Yes |
217 |
0.965 |
$209.73 |
$138.71 |
+195.3% |
| Will Hong Kong have 700mm or more of precipitation in August? |
No |
100 |
0.770 |
$76.82 |
$12.47 |
+19.4% |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 6? |
No |
73 |
0.580 |
$42.58 |
$-0.73 |
-1.7% |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 7? |
No |
20 |
0.885 |
$17.70 |
$1.70 |
+10.6% |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 7? |
Yes |
141 |
0.075 |
$10.55 |
$5.33 |
+102.1% |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 5? |
Yes |
241 |
0.035 |
$8.43 |
$-62.52 |
-88.1% |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 5? |
Yes |
951 |
0.001 |
$0.48 |
$-11.58 |
-96.1% |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 5? |
Yes |
610 |
0.001 |
$0.30 |
$-5.56 |
-94.8% |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 5? |
Yes |
392 |
0.001 |
$0.20 |
$-19.19 |
-99.0% |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 5? |
Yes |
185 |
0.001 |
$0.09 |
$-30.22 |
-99.7% |