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Trader leaderboard/simulacrum3

simulacrum3

0x2843d543c60a54106f572ab74f0e2e04f293b3d2
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$78
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$278
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+2.2%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
62%
61W / 38L · 44 open
Win Return (30d)
55%
77W / 63L · 3 open
Trades (30d)
143
across 31 markets · ~5 per market
EV / position
+$3.89
avg win $36 · loss $71
Profit Factor
1.18
$502 won / $424 lost
Reward / Risk
0.51
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
$0
no drawdown
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $3,971 · all-time $958,958

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 61.2% 622W/394L 424 $35,526
🏛 Politics 100.0% 5W/0L 5 $403
⚽ Sports 6.7% 1W/14L 3 $62
💵 Economy 100.0% 1W/0L 1 $153
₿ Crypto 1 $70
🎬 Culture 1 $107

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

44 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? No 642 0.770 $494.13 $95.72 +24.0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 603 0.675 $407.32 $38.03 +10.3%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? Yes 625 0.479 $299.17 $44.79 +17.6%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? Yes 380 0.625 $237.50 $-49.27 -17.2%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? Yes 289 0.695 $201.15 $-4.25 -2.1%
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Yes 1,200 0.135 $162.04 $-342.02 -67.9%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 310 0.490 $151.90 $-31.69 -17.3%
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 200 0.655 $131.00 $-21.00 -13.8%
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? Yes 156 0.797 $124.39 $17.28 +16.1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? No 232 0.465 $107.68 $-43.47 -28.8%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 400 0.255 $102.00 $-76.25 -42.8%
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? Yes 350 0.285 $99.72 $-124.26 -55.5%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? No 120 0.725 $86.94 $-4.86 -5.3%
Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? Yes 200 0.430 $86.00 $6.00 +7.5%
OpenAI criminally charged in the US in 2026? No 100 0.810 $81.00 $-6.20 -7.1%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes 489 0.165 $80.61 $-132.47 -62.2%
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 215 0.315 $67.81 $-55.82 -45.2%
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes 302 0.210 $63.50 $-150.59 -70.3%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 200 0.295 $59.00 $-22.70 -27.8%
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026? Yes 100 0.555 $55.50 $-25.00 -31.1%
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? Yes 121 0.460 $55.49 $0.00 +0.0%
Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI? Yes 250 0.205 $51.25 $-94.25 -64.8%
Critical Discord Incident by September 30? Yes 55 0.850 $46.75 $-7.15 -13.3%
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31? Yes 82 0.570 $46.57 $-10.07 -17.8%
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 210 0.215 $45.15 $-81.85 -64.4%