| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
11,473 |
0.986 |
$11,306.51 |
$742.66 |
+7.0% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? |
No |
9,771 |
0.964 |
$9,414.20 |
$1,504.87 |
+19.0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? |
No |
7,204 |
0.875 |
$6,303.40 |
$733.05 |
+13.2% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? |
No |
5,377 |
0.755 |
$4,059.66 |
$-86.09 |
-2.1% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
No |
4,102 |
0.973 |
$3,988.71 |
$1,754.85 |
+78.6% |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? |
No |
4,180 |
0.825 |
$3,446.35 |
$166.42 |
+5.1% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
No |
7,510 |
0.355 |
$2,666.18 |
$-563.28 |
-17.4% |
| Trump out as President by August 31? |
No |
2,532 |
0.993 |
$2,512.65 |
$181.01 |
+7.8% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 21, 2026? |
Yes |
2,832 |
0.845 |
$2,393.01 |
$211.05 |
+9.7% |
| Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? |
No |
1,827 |
0.925 |
$1,689.97 |
$118.75 |
+7.6% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
No |
2,686 |
0.540 |
$1,450.21 |
$98.51 |
+7.3% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? |
Yes |
2,928 |
0.485 |
$1,420.22 |
$-342.39 |
-19.4% |
| 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31? |
No |
1,761 |
0.775 |
$1,365.31 |
$-45.24 |
-3.2% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? |
No |
1,267 |
0.980 |
$1,240.96 |
$974.02 |
+364.9% |
| Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
1,163 |
0.987 |
$1,147.09 |
$84.30 |
+7.9% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? |
No |
1,589 |
0.715 |
$1,136.44 |
$632.99 |
+125.7% |
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? |
Yes |
3,437 |
0.255 |
$876.35 |
$849.51 |
+3164.2% |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
No |
1,100 |
0.723 |
$794.54 |
$48.09 |
+6.4% |
| Andrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026? |
No |
1,029 |
0.770 |
$792.33 |
$72.03 |
+10.0% |
| Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
811 |
0.973 |
$788.92 |
$278.11 |
+54.4% |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? |
No |
1,054 |
0.702 |
$739.28 |
$-20.77 |
-2.7% |
| Will Sofia host Eurovision 2027? |
Yes |
1,005 |
0.705 |
$708.85 |
$36.55 |
+5.4% |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31? |
Yes |
1,238 |
0.570 |
$705.78 |
$-54.69 |
-7.2% |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? |
No |
725 |
0.943 |
$683.33 |
$8.70 |
+1.3% |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? |
No |
938 |
0.705 |
$660.94 |
$23.44 |
+3.7% |