| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
11,473 |
0.985 |
$11,295.04 |
$731.19 |
+6.9% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? |
No |
9,771 |
0.964 |
$9,414.20 |
$1,504.87 |
+19.0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? |
No |
7,204 |
0.875 |
$6,303.40 |
$733.05 |
+13.2% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? |
No |
5,377 |
0.750 |
$4,032.78 |
$-112.98 |
-2.7% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
No |
4,102 |
0.966 |
$3,962.05 |
$1,728.19 |
+77.4% |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? |
No |
4,180 |
0.825 |
$3,446.35 |
$166.42 |
+5.1% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
No |
7,510 |
0.355 |
$2,666.18 |
$-563.28 |
-17.4% |
| Trump out as President by August 31? |
No |
2,532 |
0.993 |
$2,512.65 |
$181.01 |
+7.8% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 21, 2026? |
Yes |
2,832 |
0.850 |
$2,407.17 |
$225.21 |
+10.3% |
| Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? |
No |
1,827 |
0.925 |
$1,689.97 |
$118.75 |
+7.6% |
| 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31? |
No |
1,761 |
0.847 |
$1,490.31 |
$79.76 |
+5.7% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? |
Yes |
2,928 |
0.475 |
$1,390.94 |
$-371.67 |
-21.1% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? |
No |
1,267 |
0.993 |
$1,257.43 |
$990.49 |
+371.1% |
| Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
1,163 |
0.987 |
$1,147.09 |
$84.30 |
+7.9% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? |
No |
1,589 |
0.715 |
$1,136.44 |
$632.99 |
+125.7% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
No |
1,829 |
0.515 |
$943.10 |
$-7.96 |
-0.8% |
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? |
Yes |
3,437 |
0.255 |
$876.35 |
$849.51 |
+3164.2% |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
No |
1,100 |
0.723 |
$794.54 |
$48.09 |
+6.4% |
| Andrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026? |
No |
1,029 |
0.770 |
$792.33 |
$72.03 |
+10.0% |
| Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
811 |
0.966 |
$783.24 |
$272.43 |
+53.3% |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? |
No |
1,054 |
0.702 |
$739.28 |
$-20.77 |
-2.7% |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31? |
Yes |
1,238 |
0.570 |
$705.78 |
$-54.69 |
-7.2% |
| Will Sofia host Eurovision 2027? |
Yes |
1,005 |
0.700 |
$703.83 |
$31.52 |
+4.7% |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? |
No |
938 |
0.705 |
$660.94 |
$23.44 |
+3.7% |
| Kash Patel out by December 31? |
No |
791 |
0.790 |
$625.15 |
$333.82 |
+114.6% |