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Trader leaderboard/Nowayfolding

Nowayfolding

0x20b382be32a82d308fb9238f3c2a01756385d24c
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$20
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$1
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-3.4%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
37%
7W / 12L · 8 open
Win Return (30d)
48%
13W / 14L
Trades (30d)
27
across 11 markets · ~2 per market
EV / position
−$3.31
avg win $18 · loss $24
Profit Factor
0.73
$54 won / $73 lost
Reward / Risk
0.73
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$24
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $1,326 · all-time $76,271

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 68.3% 110W/51L 65 $6,015
🏛 Politics 0.0% 0W/7L 4 $111

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

24 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? No 1,183 0.935 $1,106.96 $71.15 +6.9%
Will Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? No 49 0.830 $40.55 $3.42 +9.2%
Will Trump speak to Andy Burnham in August? No 158 0.250 $39.56 $0.08 +0.2%
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? No 60 0.625 $37.60 $-0.50 -1.3%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 20 0.852 $17.04 $2.40 +16.4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? No 20 0.835 $16.70 $-0.50 -2.9%
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? No 145 0.105 $15.22 $-18.57 -55.0%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? No 15 0.959 $14.38 $3.23 +28.9%
Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? No 15 0.725 $10.88 $5.02 +85.9%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 10 0.930 $9.30 $0.10 +1.1%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? No 40 0.225 $9.00 $-5.60 -38.4%
Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium? No 10 0.885 $8.85 $0.45 +5.4%
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 10 0.875 $8.75 $0.05 +0.6%
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 10 0.825 $8.25 $1.05 +14.6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? No 10 0.710 $7.10 $-0.90 -11.2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 10 0.675 $6.75 $0.75 +12.5%
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No 10 0.665 $6.65 $0.65 +10.8%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes 25 0.265 $6.62 $0.38 +6.0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? Yes 25 0.225 $5.62 $0.62 +12.5%
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Yes 20 0.275 $5.50 $0.50 +10.0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? No 10 0.450 $4.50 $-1.50 -25.0%
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Yes 10 0.295 $2.95 $-0.95 -24.4%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? Yes 10 0.278 $2.77 $-0.72 -20.7%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 10 0.117 $1.17 $-0.23 -16.2%