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Trader leaderboard/CapeCalibratedPM

CapeCalibratedPM

0x1d2a47b6ec514a0fe26cb07a45cd4702b4647682
Scoped to Culture — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$20
Culture · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
$0
no open positions
ROI (30d)
-60.0%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
14%
7W / 44L
Win Return (30d)
14%
7W / 44L
Trades (30d)
51
across 18 markets · ~3 per market
EV / position
−$1.10
avg win $2 · loss $2
Profit Factor
0.20
$5 won / $25 lost
Reward / Risk
1.57
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$9
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $571 · all-time $200,381

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 41.0% 1,847W/2,661L 2621 $9,123
⚽ Sports 63.5% 115W/66L 167 $240
🏛 Politics 15.8% 3W/16L 8 $17
🎬 Culture 15.8% 3W/16L 6 $16

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

49 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? No 29 0.805 $23.43 $10.33 +78.9%
Will Charlie Hatcher be the TN-05 Republican nominee? Yes 84 0.255 $21.49 $3.79 +21.4%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? Yes 23 0.830 $18.86 $13.86 +277.3%
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? No 8 1.000 $7.76 $1.19 +18.1%
Will Gunnar Henderson lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? Yes 498 0.015 $7.22 $-6.81 -48.5%
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? No 6 0.986 $5.52 $0.54 +10.8%
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 7 0.665 $4.89 $0.49 +11.2%
Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? No 5 0.908 $4.54 $0.24 +5.6%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 5 0.920 $4.16 $0.32 +8.2%
Will Tyreek Hill play for the Kansas City Chiefs next? Yes 20 0.168 $3.35 $-6.23 -65.0%
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 10 0.325 $3.17 $-0.98 -23.5%
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? No 3 0.840 $2.46 $0.18 +7.7%
Will Marcelo Brigadeiro win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? No 2 0.946 $2.34 $0.11 +5.1%
Will Tyreek Hill play for the Las Vegas Raiders next? Yes 20 0.109 $2.18 $-1.32 -37.7%
Will Shohei Ohtani lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? Yes 60 0.032 $1.92 $-6.48 -77.1%
Will Aaron Judge lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? Yes 60 0.030 $1.80 $0.72 +66.7%
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027 No 2 0.755 $1.71 $-0.31 -15.2%
Will Kyle Schwarber lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? Yes 60 0.029 $1.71 $-0.75 -30.5%
Will Tyreek Hill play for the Dallas Cowboys next? Yes 244 0.006 $1.46 $0.97 +200.0%
Will Ben Rice lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? Yes 60 0.024 $1.44 $-2.40 -62.5%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 2 0.646 $1.24 $0.06 +4.9%
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? No 14 0.085 $1.21 $-0.79 -39.3%
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? No 1 0.765 $1.01 $0.01 +0.7%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 3 0.365 $0.99 $-0.10 -8.7%
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska governor race in 2026? No 6 0.155 $0.97 $-0.03 -3.1%